Ukraine Raises Rates

• Vadim Denisenko
• 7.04.2026, 11:38

Russia is now experiencing its greatest period of turbulence since the Prigozhin rebellion.

For at least the next 10-14 days, Russia will not be able to restore its exports and thus earn super profits amid the war in Iran.

1

Ukraine, after a series of attacks on Russia's Baltic oil transshipment ports, struck Novorossiysk again. Once again, Russian air defenses missed the strike. There is an important point here: Ukraine is ignoring the "recommendations" of the US and European countries to refrain from strikes on ports through which oil is transshipped.

2

It appears that Ukraine is trying to raise the stakes, and the main goal is to force Russia to the negotiating table. This is an absolutely correct and logical strategy. But there is one "but": in the current negotiating format, even a complete halt of Russian exports will not make Putin stop. Either the negotiation format or Putin himself needs to change.

3

Zelensky's tour of the Middle East could be a prologue to a change of format. However, I still believe that without China's participation, the talks have minimal chance of becoming more productive. To understand: the Baltic ports are crucial for oil supplies to the Celestial Empire.

4

Russia is now going through its most turbulent period since the Prigozhin mutiny. In such situations, Putin does not usually attack or take drastic actions. He "goes into the shadows" and waits for a convenient moment to strike. Therefore, it is important to take this factor into account. Putin's "silence" in response to the strikes on the port infrastructure is temporary. Now it is important not to succumb to the "giddiness of success" and start thinking about the next step. In my opinion, it is time to think about changing the format of negotiations.

Vadim Denisenko, "Facebook"