"How Events Will Unfold In The Middle East Only One Person Knows"
- 8.04.2026, 12:38
The U.S. and Israel took a pause after the first goals were achieved.
US President Donald Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran, saying he was ready to move to the final stage of negotiations. In doing so, Tehran set 10 conditions, the fulfillment of which depends on the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and further development of the situation.
What does this temporary truce between the US and Iran really mean? About it Charter97.org talked to Oleh Bilokolos, director of the Center for National Resilience Studies in Kiev, ex-advisor of the Ukrainian Embassy in Canada and Kenya:
- I think that the goals that the U.S. and Israel set for themselves at the first stage have already been achieved. And now they need a pause to decide for themselves what to do next in this situation. Perhaps that is their position now.
With regard to Iran, significant damage has been done to various military bases and production facilities. And here, too, they probably need a certain pause in order to gather their thoughts and decide what to do next.
- How realistic and acceptable are the conditions put forward by Iran to the U.S. and Israel?
- These 10 demands reminded me of bargaining in the Eastern bazaar, when obviously unacceptable conditions are put forward in advance. It is clear that the U.S. will never agree to such demands as Iran has voiced, particularly in terms of reparations.
But I think that this is bargaining, and it will continue in some way. Most likely, if serious negotiations do begin, they will begin on a non-public plane. Pakistan has been quite successful there, at least so far, as a mediator. Perhaps practical substantive negotiations will begin through Pakistan's mediation.
This was most likely a propaganda throw-in to show that Iran is still ready to resist and, in principle, even considers itself a winner. Which, frankly speaking, of course, looks ridiculous.
- How, in your opinion, will the situation in the Middle East develop further?
- To be frank: I think only one person knows how events will develop, and that is US President Donald Trump. It is absolutely unproductive to make any predictions under these circumstances. Only he knows how the United States will act. Perhaps, to some extent, Israel is also aware of further plans.
But I think that as long as this ceasefire is in effect, some plans will only be formed. Several scenarios are possible. Therefore, it is at least unproductive to talk about the development of events according to one scenario.