Lithuanian Colonel: Russia Is Preparing Four Scenarios Of Attack On The Baltic States
- 8.04.2026, 16:51
The most dangerous is a surprise invasion with a massive air attack.
Colonel of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Lithuania Linas Idzelis said that Lithuania had been practicing four possible options if Russia were to attack the Baltic states. According to him, similar discussions within the army were held after the collapse of the USSR.
He said this in an interview with Ukrinform. He also added that Russia could probably involve Belarus in this as well.
Scenarios of Russia's attack on the Baltic States
The first scenario, according to him, is hybrid warfare. As an example, he cited the events in Ukraine in 2014.
"But this invasion was preceded by a large-scale information campaign and cyberattacks. Therefore, the invasion was just a continuation of these initial hybrid actions," the serviceman explained, and added that since then, European countries have been prepared for such a development of events
He said Lithuanian senior military officers knew about this scenario because they had once studied it from Russian textbooks.
"In these textbooks, the invasion is just the last phase, before which homework has already been done. The Russians always do this, and now with Telegram and other tools it is easy for them to hire someone for a few hundred euros to smuggle contraband, set fire to some factory or damage a monument," Idzelis said, noting that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against the whole of Europe.
The second scenario Vilnius considered was "changing the consciousness of the local population through reflexive control operations."
"The ultimate goal is for Russian tanks to be greeted with flowers, not grenade launchers," the soldier explained.
The third scenario, according to Idzelis, is an energy blockade, but he said Vilnius has done everything to end its energy dependence on Moscow. At the same time, he noted that some European countries "are so dependent on Russian hydrocarbons that it is easy for Moscow to conduct influence operations there and blackmail governments."
"The fourth scenario is a sudden and quick attack. For example, several thousand Russian soldiers in civilian clothes arrive in Lithuania at night in civilian cars. This will be accompanied by about 400 'shaheds', cruise and ballistic missiles at about five o'clock in the morning," Idzelis said.
In his opinion, the fourth option is the most dangerous, as Europe, according to his estimates, is not prepared to defend itself against such a large number of aerial targets, but Idzelis believes that the Russian Armed Forces will act more cautiously in case of such a scenario.
"Purely from a military point of view, an invasion involving less than 200,000 troops along several directions of advance (in Ukraine. - Ed.) was madness, but the Russians still went for it, which turned out to be a big mistake for them," he emphasized.