Ukraine Has Not Seen Such Success For Three Years
- 11.05.2026, 13:01
The coming months will be crucial.
In recent months, a situation has emerged on the front that seemed unlikely even six months ago: Ukrainian forces have managed to liberate more territory than the Russian army captures. Polish analyst Sławiek Zagórski writes about this in an article for WP Wiadomości.
Although we are not talking about a strategic breakthrough yet, the trend indicates a noticeable slowdown in the Russian offensive and growing problems for the Kremlin's army.
According to the analyst, in February Russian forces captured about 126 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory compared to more than 240 square kilometers in January. At the same time, Ukraine regained about 140 square kilometers in January and 180 in February, mostly in the southern direction. In April, the Russian army lost about 120 more square kilometers of previously held territory.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has liberated about 75-76 thousand square kilometers. Now about 108-110 thousand square kilometers remain under Moscow's control, which is about 18% of the country's territory. About half of these lands were occupied before February 2022.
Despite localized successes, the pace of liberation remains limited. In April, Ukrainian forces managed to retake only about 0.02% of the country's territory, and it will not be easy to achieve larger-scale results in the near future.
An analyst emphasizes the growing loss of personnel among Russia's main problems. For several months, the Russian army has been losing more soldiers than it has time to replenish at the expense of hidden mobilization and contract workers. According to Ukrainian data, from December to the end of April, Russia mobilized about 148,000 people, while the losses for this period amounted to almost 157,000.
An additional factor was the spring off-road, traditionally complicating offensive operations. Swampy soil limits the movement of heavy equipment, disrupts logistics and reduces the pace of advance.
If last year Russian troops advanced on average about 150 meters per day, and in some areas - up to one or two kilometers, now this figure has fallen to 30-70 meters per day. In the southern direction, the pace remains even lower.
After months of pressure, Zagursky believes that after many months of pressure, the first signs have appeared that Ukraine is able to intercept the initiative at least at the tactical level.
In the coming months, it will become clear whether this is a temporary effect of weather conditions and fatigue of Russian units or the beginning of a systemic weakening of Russia's offensive potential. For now, the front remains relatively stable, but for a month now the Ukrainian army has been holding the initiative and liberating more territory than it is losing.