The Guardian: The Ukrainian Armed Forces Forced Putin To Talk About Ceasefire
- 12.05.2026, 7:54
The initiative goes to Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin said on May 9 that the war against Ukraine may be nearing an end. As The Guardian notes, the statement raises questions about why the Kremlin is talking about a possible end to the conflict now - amid changes on the frontline and new economic challenges.
The publication recalls that after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Russia has been gradually advancing, seizing new territory. Despite the slow pace of the offensive and high casualties, it seemed that Moscow retained the strategic initiative.
In recent months, however, the situation has changed. Ukraine's liberation of Kupyansk in December, which the Russian side had previously claimed to have captured, came as a surprise even to Western military analysts.
According to the publication, the restriction of Russian troops' access to Starlink satellite internet, as well as problems with the use of Telegram, helped Ukrainian forces regain some of their lost positions in the Zaporizhzhya region.
Another factor has been cited as Russian army losses. Ukraine claims that over the past five months, the number of Russian military killed and wounded has exceeded new recruitment.
According to Ukrainian estimates, in March and April, the Russian army was losing about 35,000 men every month, mostly to drone strikes.
Economist Janis Kluge, analyzing regional budgets of the Russian Federation, estimates the current rate of recruitment at 800-1,000 men per day, which amounts to 24,000-30,000 men per month. These data are indirectly confirmed by statements by Dmitry Medvedev, who reported that more than 80,000 people enlisted in the army in the first quarter.
The Russian economy is also under serious pressure. Although rising global oil prices have temporarily improved the situation, Moscow's revenues remain vulnerable.
According to the Kiev School of Economics, Russia's oil revenues reached $19 billion in March compared to $9.8 billion in February, becoming the highest since the fall of 2023.
While Ukrainian long-range missile and drone strikes on oil facilities at Primorsk and Ust-Luga have significantly reduced exports.
According to Carnegie Endowment analyst Sergey Vakulenko, daily oil exports fell from 5.2 million to 3.5 million barrels.
The expert notes that high prices have so far compensated for the decline in supplies, but the situation could change dramatically if the United States and Iran reach an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz, which would lead to a drop in oil prices and new problems for the Russian economy.