Kuleba: Lukashenko's Regime Will Collapse If It Goes To War

• 16.05.2026, 15:54

And the dictator realizes this.

The potential of the Belarusian army does not compare in any way with the capabilities of the AFU. However, this does not mean that Lukashenko's aggressive statements do not deserve attention. This was stated by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba on the air of his YouTube channel, commenting on the words of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky that Russia is trying to drag Belarus deeper into the war.

According to Kuleba, only two questions remain open at the moment regarding a possible offensive by Belarus: the direction of the strike and the timing.

If the war comes to the Belarusian territory, the diplomat believes, "Lukashenko's entire regime may collapse very quickly." In his opinion, Lukashenko himself understands it, but is unable to change the situation.

"Lukashenko is in the grip of Russian agents, he is surrounded by the FSB, his Ministry of Defense is headed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. There is an imitation of sovereignty there. He's just resisting with his last strength and, I think, he's directly telling Putin: 'You don't want me to fall apart,'" said Kuleba.

Comparing the Ukrainian and Belarusian armies, the ex-minister emphasized that their potential is not comparable.

"No matter how Lukashenko demonstrates the strength of his army, one should treat any opponent with respect. But the potential of this army cannot be compared to that of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Its air defense capabilities - whatever the Russians send for defense - are also limited. "So many things will fly and so much will be destroyed in Belarus, that, as they say, 'you can't blame your mother'," he said.

In Kuleba's opinion, if Belarus is directly involved in the war, it could seriously destabilize the situation inside the country.