"That's Why Zelensky Warned Lukashenko So Harshly."

• 19.05.2026, 14:59

The risk of Belarus being dragged into the war against Ukraine has increased.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky ordered to strengthen the border with Belarus, and the commander of the Ukrainian drone army Robert Brovdi "Madyar" warned Lukashenko twice about responsibility.

Why are we seeing escalating rhetoric from Ukraine? About this and not only Charter97.org talked to a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko:

- These all ostentatious maneuvers to prepare for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the closure of certain parts of the border territories, some special works that are being carried out - gestures that should show Putin that Lukashenko is ready to help. But I believe that he is still maneuvering. However, the risk of Belarus being drawn into the war against Ukraine has increased.

That is why President Zelensky publicly makes such warnings. This is not a threat to Belarus, but a warning that Lukashenko may make a huge mistake and a huge crime before the Belarusian people if he tries to give in to Putin and draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine.

- What is the point of such a warning?

- First of all, to make people in Belarus know that there is such a risk. So that Lukashenko really understands the consequences. You remembered about the statements of Robert Brody, who in his usual emotional sharp manner warned about the consequences that could be for Lukashenko if he gets involved in this adventure.

Lukashenko does not understand how modern warfare takes place. The consequences, however, could be very serious. The distance from Ukraine to Minsk is much smaller than to Moscow. And there will be a lot of risks.

Belarus, I think, does not want and is not ready for this war. That is why it is necessary to say, including through emotional warnings like Brovdi's, that it will be a huge risk and a mistake. Besides, Vladimir Zelensky's statement, which was made just now, on the eve of Putin's visit to Beijing, should also warn some countries that are very important for Minsk, that in fact, dragging Belarus into Russia's war against Ukraine may create problems for some influential countries of the world. For example, for China.

China, which does not want to be drawn into the war between Russia and Ukraine, takes a relatively neutral position. It is not particularly involved in the negotiations, but China clearly shows that it is not interested in intensifying the war between Russia and Ukraine, in expanding its scope, including the neighboring European countries.

China has its own economic interests in Belarus. Therefore, dragging Belarus into the war against Ukraine will, of course, create risks and problems for Chinese economic interests. Moreover, it is also a risk of expanding the war to the territory of neighboring European countries. Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, with which Belarus borders. By the way, many military experts fear that all these exercises and maneuvers are not only a risk of military action from the territory of Belarus against Ukraine, but also against neighboring European countries. And this also does not meet the interests of China. China is not interested in the Russian-Ukrainian war affecting the neighboring European countries, which are important for China as a market for its products.

Now the American interest. The U.S. has shown a clear interest in Belarus this year. There are specific characters there who are interested in the Belarusian topic. The Americans are interested in Belarusian potash, Belarusian fertilizers. They are sending signals to Lukashenko.

Lukashenko obviously dreams of coming to Washington, meeting with Trump, sitting at a meeting of the Peace Council. However, if a war with the participation of Belarus against Ukraine starts, all these plans will come to an end not even with a brass plate, but with a hole in it. Instead of a visit to Washington, Lukashenko will get a lot of huge problems inside the country. He will have to forget about all the improvement of relations with the United States. Trump is clearly not interested in making the war even bigger.

He wants to stop this war, but so far he has not been very successful. Still, he is interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, not in making it even bigger.

That is why President Zelensky warned Lukashenko so harshly, sharply, and with him the Belarusian people that such criminal plans are being prepared.

- It is noteworthy that the talkative Lukashenko does not react in any way to the statements of Zelensky and "Madyar". Why?

- If he reacts, one way or another he may show either his fear or confirm these accusations. He doesn't want to set himself up in front of the Belarusians. It is clear that the regime is repressive, but I think that Lukashenko himself is afraid of war, and he realizes that the Belarusians do not want it.

He does not want to look like a supporter of the war. To deny these plans means, maybe, to break the promises he made to Putin. Maybe he does not want to fulfill these promises, but to publicize this topic, to enter into a polemic with Ukraine will be an additional informational and political risk for Lukashenko, which concerns relations with China and the United States.