"Rubio Can Play A Key Role."
- 21.05.2026, 13:25
Is the U.S. preparing for regime change in Cuba?
The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group, which includes the aircraft carrier of the same name, has arrived in the Caribbean Sea.
Could Donald Trump switch from Iran to Cuba? That's what the website Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO, Bratislava) Grigory Mesežnikov:
- If we talk about whether Trump will launch some serious military-political action, it seems to me that as long as he has not dealt with Iran, we can hardly expect a repetition of the kind of conflict that is now being played out in the Middle East, another region of the world
If he manages to somehow end this conflict, and with the claim that the U.S. has won, we cannot exclude the continuation of strong pressure on Cuba. Even now, Washington is sending signals to the Cuban regime that it needs to adapt to the new geopolitical realities in the Western Hemisphere, as the "Monroe Doctrine" is now in effect there. The US sees itself as the hegemon in the entire hemisphere.
Trump is pushing the notion that all the regimes there must cooperate with the US. Venezuela has already fallen out of the "axis of evil," although regime change has not occurred, but everything is in development. As for the conflict in Iran, the positions of both countries are absolutely incompatible, and it is not excluded that military actions will continue. It is clear that if military actions continue, it is unlikely that Trump will dare to take radical (including military) actions against Cuba.
I should add that there are forces in the Trump administration that would like a regime change in Cuba. These are primarily Marco Rubio and people in the Cuban diaspora. They will want Cuba to stay on the radar of American foreign policy so that attention is not diverted from it to something less significant. But it's all tied up in how the Iran conflict is concluded.
- Former Cuban leader Raul Castro and others have been accused of conspiring to assassinate Americans in 1996. Could he suffer the fate of Maduro, who was also indicted by a court in New York and arrested by the Americans?"
- This could serve as an ideological prop, saying, "see, it's not just Iranian-backed Hezbollah killing Americans, it's also the Cuban government, which is basically an extension of the then regime that was killing Americans."
It's unlikely that Trump will use this pretext directly for a military invasion. But that this is a manifestation of pressure on Cuba is quite obvious.
I'll emphasize again: there are solid, relevant political forces in this U.S. administration that would like to change the regime in Cuba. That is, not just to agree with those who now rule the country, as in the case of Venezuela, but precisely to change the regime.
- Is there a chance for democratic change in Havana?
- It is difficult for me to judge this, because Trump is not aimed at regime change in the sense that we often talk about, that there should be democracy, freedom, human rights. Nevertheless, any weakening or removal of the current regime would be positive in that sense. Repressions will stop, the economy, which is now in absolute ruin, will start to improve.
This country is already standing over the abyss. If any changes begin, it seems that the Americans will look for forces there that can combine democratic aspirations with a pro-American foreign policy.
I am sure that since Marco Rubio is a well-informed person, he will find such forces.