Wolfowitz Talked About The "invasion" Of Ukrainian Drones: What Is Lukashenko Up To?
- 27.05.2026, 8:17
ISW explained the dictator's plans.
Belarus said it had allegedly recorded more than 100 attempts by Defense Forces drones to cross the Ukrainian-Belarusian border during the week. They accused Ukraine of targeting at least some of these UAVs at the Belarusian border infrastructure.
These statements could be the creation of conditions to justify Russia's drone strikes on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus - which would give Russia the opportunity to more effectively attack logistics in the west and northwest of the Ukrainian state. Such an explanation was put forward by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What Belarus said and why the statement was made
The statement about the "drone threat" from Ukraine was made by Lieutenant General Alexander Wolfovich of the Belarusian Security Council. He said on May 26 that Belarusian troops had "recorded" 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the international border with Belarus over the past week.
Volfovich also claimed that some cases of Ukrainian drones crossing the border were allegedly deliberate attempts to attack Belarusian border infrastructure.
Wolfowicz's statements come amid recent warnings by Ukrainian officials that Russia is pressuring Belarus to conduct operations against Ukraine or an unspecified NATO state.
The ISW believes Belarus is unlikely to launch a ground invasion against Ukraine. Analysts do not observe and have no evidence of a buildup of such Belarusian forces on the border that would be sufficient for a ground invasion. Russia, meanwhile, also lacks the reserves necessary to support Belarusian forces in the event of a ground invasion of Ukraine, according to ISW estimates.
"Instead, Russia could use the reported presence of Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to conduct 'retaliatory strikes' against Ukraine. Belarusian territory would allow Russia to carry out continuous drone strikes against Ukrainian land lines of communication in the west and northwest, which Russian drones cannot yet easily hit with high accuracy and large payloads," the analysts said.
The ISW believes that launches of Shaheds and Molniyas from Belarus would give the occupation army the opportunity to attack the M-06 highway that runs through western Ukrainian regions, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine, as well as the railroad connecting Poland and Ukraine.
"Russian forces are already attacking western Ukrainian areas from Russian territory, but the drone launch from Belarus will allow Russian forces to use remotely piloted Shahed and Molniya drones, increasing their accuracy and ability to engage moving targets along Ukrainian ground lines," ISW explained.
As an example, analysts cited a case claimed by Ukraine in which a Russian UAV operator, sitting in Belarus, struck a freight train near Korosten in Zhitomir region (about 50 kilometers south of the Belarusian border) on December 22, 2025.
"Wolfowitz's statements and recent Ukrainian warnings on Belarus indicate that Russia is creating information conditions for further use of Belarus for its own military purposes, in particular for strikes on strategically important facilities in the rear of western Ukraine," ISW concluded.