The Economist: The War Picture For Ukraine Has Changed
- 27.05.2026, 12:07
A new phase begins.
Ukraine should be prepared for a protracted conflict with Russia, which could last for several more years. This is what The Economist writes, citing government sources.
In a Kiev suburb, a group of patriotic teenagers are undergoing military training under the supervision of instructors. The youngest is 14 years old. They come here several times a week after school and openly talk about their readiness to replace the dead military men. For them, it looks like a duty that has already become part of the daily routine of war.
At the same time, in Kiev itself, 28-year-old Ivan lives in isolation, hiding from mobilization. He once supported the army financially, but now avoids any contact with the outside world and has effectively dropped out of public life.
The publication notes that such contrasting stories coexist not only within the same city, but reflect the different realities of the war in Ukraine, from patriotic enthusiasm to evading mobilization.
Despite this, the overall picture of the war for Ukraine has changed. The front line has largely stabilized, European support continues, and the country is rapidly developing its own defense sector, particularly drone production. At the same time, the political leadership increasingly sees a protracted war as inevitable.
Ukraine has reached a critical stage: it has retained sovereignty, but sustainability alone does not mean victory. The state faces questions of resource depletion, human potential, and long-term societal sustainability.
The war Ukraine is so far holding back
Ukrainian military officials report a gradual improvement in defense effectiveness, largely due to the use of unmanned systems. They estimate that Russian troop losses remain high and the pace of personnel recovery insufficient to compensate.
Russia, despite constant pressure on the front, is not achieving its stated objectives in the Donbass as planned. Ukrainian commanders claim that the advantage is not only in technology, but also in the speed of adaptation and motivation of units.
An important factor has been long-range strikes on supply infrastructure and military facilities on Russian territory. Ukraine produces much of these systems itself, gradually reducing its dependence on external supplies, although intelligence from partners remains critical.
Yevgeniy Karas, commander of the 413th Regiment, says that achieving targets deep behind Russian lines is now "three times easier" than it used to be. His unit has conducted several important operations, including strikes in March against Silicon El, a manufacturer of microchips for Russian ballistic missiles. The military officer says:
"The war is not heaven for Ukraine, but things are much worse for Russia, and it's going to get harder."
He predicts a Russian air defense crisis by the fall. By then, Ukraine's ballistic production should be in full swing, causing fear and confusion deep inside Russia.
The publication emphasizes:
"By all conventional measures, Ukraine should have already lost. It is holding back an enemy whose population is 4.5 times its own, whose land area is 28 times larger and whose economy is 12 times larger than its own."
The Cost of War
Despite the military successes, the domestic consequences of the war are becoming increasingly tangible. Ukrainian infrastructure is being hit regularly and the energy system remains vulnerable. Massive drone and missile attacks continue to affect major cities, including Kiev.
The economy is being kept afloat by international aid and defense sector development, but labor losses are significant. The overall decline in the working-age population is significantly affecting the pace of recovery.
The energy sector remains the most critical. Civil sector representatives and government advisors stress that it is energy stability, not just the situation on the front, that will determine the country's sustainability in the coming years.
Taras Chmut, a social activist and advisor to the Defense Ministry, says he is now more concerned about energy than the front lines. He says:
"Wars are not fought by armies, but by societies. If faith in our ability to withstand war is destroyed, the will to fight will also be destroyed."
Societies, meanwhile, remain tense. Polls conducted in Ukraine record three large groups: staunch patriots, moderate skeptics and demotivated citizens. Among the factors that most undermine trust are corruption and distrust in institutions.
Internal risks and political tensions
The issue of mobilization has become one of the most sensitive in society. Although the army generally provides the necessary recruitment, inequalities in approaches and cases of forced mobilization have caused public discontent.
In parallel, political contradictions are escalating in the country. Corruption scandals and infighting within the elites are undermining trust in the government, especially against the backdrop of the impossibility of holding elections in wartime.
Despite President Vladimir Zelensky's public stoicism and diplomatic efforts, there is growing criticism of Ukraine's top-level management style. According to interlocutors close to political processes, the decision-making system is increasingly concentrated around a narrow circle of individuals, and the format of governance is becoming more centralized.
Insiders claim that the Office of the President has increased its influence on the information environment, particularly through a network of linked media resources and social accounts that are used to shape public narratives and criticize opponents. Individual anti-corruption initiatives, they say, have allegedly faced pressure and counter legal actions.
The piece also mentions personnel reshuffles in the security services, which critics say may indicate an increase in personal loyalty as a key criterion for appointments.
"Zelensky does not tolerate strong people," complains a high-ranking intelligence officer. "He has created a cult of loyalty around him."
The Endless War
The negotiation processes that have periodically emerged with the involvement of international mediators have not produced a sustainable result. Ideas of a compromise peace with concessions of territory have lost political support for the time being.
Factually the fighting continues in a mode of attrition, where both sides try to achieve advantage through prolonged pressure. Neither side shows any willingness to end the war as soon as possible.
"Government sources report that Zelensky has ordered preparations for another two to three years of war. There is no convincing reason why Ukraine cannot continue fighting for that long. It will survive, though it is tainted by wartime militarism and corruption. For some Ukrainians, this is not enough," the publication writes.