"There Are Four Scenarios On How Putin Can Use Lukashenko"

• 28.05.2026, 12:16

The first is the demonstrative accumulation of forces near the Ukrainian border.

How can Putin use Lukashenko's army in the near future? This is the question Charter97.org asked by Major General of the Ukrainian Security Service in reserve Viktor Yagun:

- There are several most likely scenarios. The first: a demonstrative accumulation of forces near the Ukrainian border to force Ukraine to retain some resources in the northern direction.

Second: provocations on the border, creating the appearance of a threat, information operations, sabotage scenarios or attempts to present the situation as a "Ukrainian provocation."

Third: using the territory of Belarus for Russian drones, missiles, aviation, REB and logistics without the Belarusian army formally entering the war.

Fourth: creating a controlled crisis at the borders of Lithuania, Latvia or Poland in order to pressure NATO and divert attention from Ukraine.