Lukashenko Is Between Hammer And Anvil

• 29.05.2026, 15:04

The Belarusian army can point its weapons against the dictator.

Natalia Radina, editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org, in the air of the Ukrainian TV channel FREEDOM commented on the threats to Ukraine from the territory of Belarus and the risks of drawing the Belarusian army into the war, as well as named two military facilities in our country that are extremely important for Putin.

- How do you assess the probability of Belarus' participation in Russia's ground operation against Ukraine?

- Here I agree with the conclusions of the Institute for the Study of War - today we do not observe the concentration of Russian troops, heavy equipment in Belarus, or the formation of any strike groups on the border with Ukraine.

Nevertheless, threats from the territory of Belarus to Ukraine remain. And, of course, the possibility of missile strikes, drone attacks from Belarus on Ukrainian cities is quite real. I think it's possible, given what the Ukrainian side said earlier: drones are being aimed at Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, there are repeaters for Russian drones.

The threat is very real. And the fact that today, in response, the Ukrainian military is talking about possible strikes on the Belarusian military identified 500 targets, including businesses and even Lukashenko's residence, is very effective.

It is necessary to keep warning Lukashenko: if missile and drone strikes fall on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus again, the response will be very tough.

- Natalia, what do you think Lukashenko will be stronger: fear of Putin or fear of Ukrainian drones?"

When talking about Russia's war against Ukraine, we often remember that Putin has lost touch with reality. All these so-called "NWO targets" are no longer targets for a long time, he is constantly making up some new excuse. To what extent is there a risk that the same thing could happen to Lukashenko and he will decide to jeopardize the whole country by following the Kremlin's hand? How do you see this picture? What would be scarier for him after all? Or will it be, you know, like in cartoons, where there is a villain who seems to be together with all the villains, and then at some point runs away in the other direction?

- Lukashenko is now, of course, between a hammer and an anvil. The situation is extremely difficult for him. Here it is difficult to say what he is more afraid of, because he also has a strong fear of Putin.

- I do not believe that Lukashenko can be pulled, for example, to the side of good, to the West, as some experts now say, looking at his dialog with U.S. President Donald Trump. But I think that when Ukraine talks about possible retaliatory strikes on his own residences, on oil refineries, on military facilities, it works.

There, by the way, it is very important not to forget about the Russian military bases that are on the territory of Belarus. This will be a very good argument for Putin as to why we should not use the territory of Belarus.

In Belarus there is a Russian radar station near Baranovichi, in Gantsevichi, as well as a communication center of the Russian Navy in the town of Vileika. These are serious military facilities, which are extremely important for Russia.

Today, when Robert Brovdy and other Ukrainian military men talk about strikes on the territory of Belarus, it is necessary to name these two Russian stations among others. I think this will sober Putin up as well. And maybe then the intention to shell Ukraine from the territory of Belarus will at least weaken.

- Natalia, there are sociological studies in Russia about how people feel about the war. Do they support it or not, to what extent do they support it, with what degree of cruelty or, on the contrary, do they want peace, on what terms and so on.Do such surveys exist in Belarus? Can we even somehow measure what the Belarusians themselves, who remain in their homeland, think about what is going on? Including the latest acts of military intimidation, which Lukashenko is jointly conducting with Putin??

- I can unequivocally say that the absolute majority of the population is against the participation of the Belarusian army in this war and against the very aggression that Russia has launched against your country. And the fact that the Belarusian army has not joined this war so far, fortunately, speaks about the mood in the society. Because not only Lukashenko, but also Putin himself realizes that if the military from Belarus is sent to Ukraine, it will hardly become any serious support for the Russian army. The military will surrender en masse and sabotage orders.

A barometer for me is not any sociological polls, but also the attendance of the website "Charter'97", of which I am the editor-in-chief. I see how many Belarusians read us despite the blocking. It's about one and a half or two million unique visitors a month. And we see that we are really working effectively.

I hear from many Ukrainian experts, military, politicians and diplomats how important the work of "Charter'97" and other independent media is. It is precisely because we "propagandize" Belarusians. We oppose the total deceitfulness of the population, which comes from the Russian TV and Internet resources.

In Belarus, fortunately, there is no complete control over people's consciousness thanks to the work of independent journalists. And here the support of such projects as "Charter'97" and other independent media is very important. After all, we are really helping you today in this war.

- Political scientist Maxim Nesvitalov said that an attack by Belarus or Russia through Belarus, if it happened, would be a complete suicide for Lukashenko. If Lukashenko does decide, what would this suicide look like in practice?

How much discontent among the Belarusian military is possible now? Could there be some kind of military coup inside Belarus itself? After all, it is not necessary to simply surrender to Ukraine. You can direct your force against a dictator who forces you to do so. How do you assess the probability of such a situation?

- Certainly, if the Belarusian military are sent to Ukraine, I admit riots in the army. And then the soldiers just might point their weapons in a completely different direction. This is quite possible, and Lukashenko realizes it too.

- Moreover, I am convinced that there will be huge casualties. We know that the Belarusian army has no combat experience. And if the military enters Ukraine, there will certainly be a large number of dead. And when, excuse me, their corpses will start returning in black bags to Belarus, it will have a very strong impact on the mood among the people.

Of course, it is difficult to talk about any protests in Belarus now, given that a very tough totalitarian regime has been established in the country. But it is the war, as historical experience shows, that can have a very strong impact on society.

That is why for Lukashenko direct participation in the war against Ukraine will have terrible consequences, he realizes it. Another thing to take into account is that Lukashenko is not a subject today, the dictator is absolutely dependent on Putin. And it is clear that if Putin, who has really lost touch with reality, decides to actively use both the Belarusian army and the Belarusian territory for a repeated offensive against Ukraine, Lukashenko will be forced to obey. And he will put the final nail in his coffin.

- Natalia, just the other day Svetlana Tikhanovskaya visited Kiev. The meetings were held at the highest level, she was received by President Vladimir Zelensky. This is the first and important visit. Much has been said that after the horror of this war is over and after the changes in Belarus, the relations between Ukraine and Belarus will be very positive and friendly.

How do you see it? Are these relations really hindered specifically by Lukashenko, his regime and, understandably, by Putin's war?

- First of all, I am very glad that in 32 years of Lukashenko's dictatorship, the Ukrainian president met with representatives of the Belarusian opposition. Because neither Leonid Kravchuk, nor Leonid Kuchma, nor Viktor Yushchenko, nor, of course, Viktor Yanukovych, nor Peter Poroshenko met with representatives of the Belarusian opposition.

Although it is quite strange, because democratic Western states always, even if they had relations with the authorities, met with the Belarusian opposition.

This is a definite plus. But as for the personal meeting with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, I think it is seriously overdue. Tihanovska is not the leader of the entire opposition. This visit made sense in 2020-2021.

By 2026, this politician has lost the support of Belarusians. So from a practical point of view, I see no point in these meetings with her. But the symbolic meaning, yes, it is present.