Four Scenarios For Belarus: Whether Lukashenko Will Enter The War

• 3.05.2026, 13:52

Poland has predicted the likely development of events.

Expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) Anna Maria Dyner in an interview with Centrum Europy outlined four possible scenarios of Belarus' participation in the war, noting that their probability depends primarily on Russia's strategy and how events in the war in Ukraine will develop.

Northern Front

The first scenario, which was discussed during the expert's conversation with a Centrum Europy journalist, assumes that Putin's Russia will eventually force Lukashenko to join the war with Ukraine by opening a northern front.

But, according to Anna Maria Dyner, this is only possible if Russia really wants to strangle Ukraine and win this war. After all, if we assume that it does not want to stop the war with Ukraine, but for various reasons needs to continue it, then in this case such a scenario "can be considered unlikely."

The expert notes that in this scenario there may be a threat of opening a northern front.

"It is possible. We can imagine an offensive from Brest region to the south (of Ukraine. - Editor's note), to Volyn and Lviv regions along our border. It's only worth blowing up the railroad, and it will be a big problem," the specialist noted.

Militarization of Belarus

The second scenario is strengthening the militarization of Belarus without direct participation in hostilities. This could be a signal to Moscow that Minsk is capable of controlling the situation on its own in case of a conflict with Ukraine or NATO countries.

"Lukashenko might really want to show that he has armed forces capable of defending the country. Both from Russia and, to a certain extent, from NATO," Dyner notes.

At the same time, she emphasizes that the Belarusian authorities do not view NATO as a real threat, and the show of force could be designed primarily for Russia:

"Belarusian propaganda is one thing, but real military knowledge is quite another. In 2019, representatives of the Belarusian Defense Ministry were able to publicly state that they do not perceive NATO as a threat. They know that NATO will not attack Belarus, so they must demonstrate their strength to Russia."

Suvalki Corridor and an attack on Poland

The third scenario is related to a possible conflict in the Baltic region. Belarus may not take part in it directly, but signals to NATO that it will defend its territory and will not allow it to be squeezed from the Suvalka corridor.

And, finally, the fourth scenario - a joint attack by Belarus and Russia on Poland - Dyner calls the least likely:

"It would mean a blow to the largest country on NATO's eastern flank, which has the forces to resist it."

The expert believes that such a move would be too risky for Russia, especially against the backdrop of a long war against Ukraine. It would be the opening of a second front.

On the whole, Diener believes that the most dangerous thing may not be a full-scale conflict, but limited provocations, especially in the Baltic region, which could test NATO's readiness to respond.