"Pashinyan Is Pounding Lukashenko Like A Boxer Pounding A Punching Bag"
- 30.05.2026, 10:50
The Armenian way will be exemplary.
Political analyst of the Pozirk news agency Alexander Klaskovsky in a commentary for "Filin" Nikol Pashinyan responded to Alexander Lukashenko in response to his earlier statements that Armenia "is of no use to anyone." Pashinyan noted that the country no longer intends to depend on one ally, one route or one source of gas.
Why do Lukashenko and Pashinyan regularly exchange barbed remarks and does Minsk have leverage over the Armenian prime minister, who emphasizes Lukashenko's illegitimacy by his actions? Filin asked political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky about this.
- Lukashenko has had a dislike and antipathy towards Pashinyan ever since he came to power in 2018 as a result of street protests - what Lukashenko and Putin call a "color revolution".
The autocrats dislike such leaders very much," Klaskovsky explains. - From Lukashenko's point of view, this is some kind of upstart, an "extremist," so to speak. That's why from the very first meetings Lukashenko started making barbed remarks about Pashinyan.
But the main conflict is between Yerevan and Moscow. Putin is more reserved and does not always voice what is on his mind. And Lukashenko is used to the role of the Kremlin's mouthpiece, running ahead of the locomotive and saying things that Putin, as a former cunning cagebearer, thinks it is better not to voice publicly.
That is, Lukashenko acts as the Kremlin's mouthpiece, because the main conflict, I repeat, is between Moscow and Yerevan, as the Kremlin jealously follows the European aspirations of the Armenian authorities and wants to prevent it.
If we explain Pashinyan's harshness, it is Lukashenko, not Putin, who is more likely to clash with him, because it is riskier to quarrel publicly with Moscow. With Minsk, there is less risk that Lukashenko will take some painful retaliatory steps.
Pashinyan is pounding Lukashenko like a boxer with a rubber bag. He says what he does not risk to say directly to Putin.
But there is not only an emotional component here. Pashinyan has a deep resentment for the fact that his country was not supported by Moscow and Minsk in the war over Karabakh, and with the tacit consent of the CSTO allies this territory was given to Azerbaijan.
That is why this enmity smolders constantly. Now Pashinyan recalled an old grudge, as this statement of Lukashenko was made back in 2024. Now at the election rally Pashinyan had to show his determination - that the course towards Europe will be continued despite the fact that certain forces are trying to put sticks in the wheels.
And he remembered Lukashenko again, although the main obstacles come from the side of Moscow.
- What leverage does Minsk have over the Armenian Prime Minister, who emphasizes Lukashenko's illegitimacy with his actions?
There are few instruments of influence in Minsk's arsenal. If Armenia is highly dependent on Russia, in particular, in terms of energy supplies, in the Belarusian case there is no such dependence.
Belarus does not send gas to Armenia, and the volume of trade is not very large at all. Judging by Armenian data, last year the total trade turnover with Belarus amounted to about 200 million dollars, which is less than 1% of the total foreign trade turnover of Armenia.
Even if Lukashenko decides to stop trade, it will not be fatal for Armenia. But why stop it, if it is beneficial for Minsk itself?
- How serious does Armenia's course of rapprochement with the EU look: can Russia and its allies derail this process?
- Today it is obvious that this is a strategic course of the Armenian authorities. It is dictated, among other things, by disappointment in Moscow and Minsk, because they did not help in the conflict with Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, relations with Turkey and Baku have improved somewhat, with the help of Washington. Armenia and Azerbaijan are building the Trump transportation corridor, which should unite their economic interests. That is, the situation in the region is not as threatening as it used to be.
Europe is also making steps towards us, providing financial assistance and developing joint programs. But of course this is a very hard way - it is clear that joining the European Union will take more than one year, and perhaps even a dozen years. The break with Russia and its allies in economic terms can be very painful indeed.
To move to European standards and enter the European market, it is necessary to seriously restructure the economy. At the same time, Armenia gets certain advantages within the EAEU.
As for the possibilities of hindering this path, Moscow threatens to stop supplying gas and oil products. Putin openly makes it clear to Pashinyan that it will not be possible to be in the EAEU and move towards joining the European Union at the same time. Therefore, Russia has such levers.
In addition, there is an opportunity to influence the results of the current election campaign. Pashinyan and his associates are fighting to win the parliamentary elections so that he can remain prime minister and continue his pro-European course. But pro-Russian forces are also strong in Armenia.
Some hybrid forms of influence may also be used. It has already been reported that Moscow wants to organize the participation of 100 thousand Armenians living in Russia in the elections so that they vote against Pashinyan.
And finally, Putin recently hinted quite transparently that Armenia's course resembles what Ukraine tried to do in its time. This is almost an overt threat, since, as we know, Kiev's EU aspirations ended with Russia starting a war. Such a risk is not excluded for Armenia as well. Therefore, the Armenian leadership is pursuing this course cautiously.
The hope that it will continue is given by a certain weakening of Moscow, as the Kremlin is now bogged down in Ukraine.
But this is an illustrative and interesting case for Belarus. I think the Belarusian democratic forces will closely watch the Armenian story, as their course is also aimed at integration into Europe.
And the Armenian way will be indicative.