"Everyone Sees Some Dementia-stricken Grandfather."
- 4.05.2026, 13:14
What is behind the information about "Shoigu's coup d'état".
CNN, the Financial Times and Russia's Important Stories, citing European intelligence, report that former Russian Minister Sergei Shoigu is associated with the risk of a coup d'état in Russia.
How real is this scenario? Charter97.org talked to Ukrainian political scientist, professor of the Kiev National Taras Shevchenko University Peter Oleshchuk about it:
- I read this publication, and it is more about Putin's paranoia than about any real threats from Shoigu. But you have to realize that paranoia is based on certain facts. So you can't say that it's purely because grandfather went crazy.
I think that there are real grounds here after all. Putin probably remembers well the coup attempt of Evgeny Prigozhin. If already the person closest to him, in fact, led a conspiracy against him, now Putin is being as cautious as possible towards everyone, expecting a variety of actions.
The more Putin has seriously let down his elite. He promised them a quick, trouble-free war. More precisely, not even a war, but a special operation - something very quick, painless. As a result, Russia is having one of the worst wars in decades. They are suffering serious losses, both from Western sanctions and from SBU sanctions, which Ukraine has been hitting oil refineries and other strategic facilities with drones on a regular basis.
Obviously, the Russian elite can't like all this. Putin keeps promising them that "he's about to defeat everyone," "he's about to come to an agreement with Donald Trump," "he's about to solve something." In reality, nothing is happening, his position is sagging.
I am not sure that it is Shoigu who may have something to do with any coup attempts. But the threat exists, and it is real, it is a fact, and Putin is well aware of it. By the way, in this regard, it is quite amusing to remember all the initiatives to hold talks with Putin in European countries, with the participation of Vladimir Zelensky, Trump's invitation to Putin to the G20 summit in Miami.
I think it is obvious to everyone that Putin will not go there simply because he is afraid of everything. The publication describes how he sits for weeks in a bunker, how for this time they prepare information billets to show Putin in the information space, how he avoids visiting his residences, how people's access to Putin and opportunities for him to appear somewhere have been significantly limited. A bleak picture for Putin, which I think is very telling in the context of where the war is going.
- Publications are reporting that Putin has developed paranoia, hiding in bunkers for weeks. Why is this information appearing now?
- I think that there is actually a certain shift that is being observed in Russian society. It has been noticed by both Russians and immigrants. Recently there was an interesting article by Alexander Baunov about how Putin is losing his halo, this kind of magic of influence on Russians. For a long time he was seen as a kind of guarantor of stability, security, that there would be such a free, well-fed life, in exchange for the fact that no one is interested in politics, does not meddle in it, and in general only Putin is engaged in politics.
This social contract existed in Russia for a long time, but the recent successful attacks of Ukraine, including on Tuapse, have finally undermined this social contract. The illusion of security is gone.
Putin is no longer a guarantor of security, and attitudes toward him are changing both among the elite and society. Instead of a heroic "pisser in the toilet", everyone sees some dementia-stricken grandfather who babbles nonsense while real problems are happening in the country. I think it's connected with this.
This publication, which we are talking about, is largely initiated from inside Russia. They are leaking information to somehow influence Putin in this situation. There is some kind of behind-the-scenes struggle in Russia, someone is trying to frame Shoigu. In fact, with Putin alive, they are sharing power.