Political Analyst: Only Russia And Lukashenko Can Remain In The CSTO And EAEU
- 6.05.2026, 15:20
The summit in Yerevan showed Armenia's U-turn towards the West and the crisis of Russian "alliances".
Yerevan has hosted a historic summit of the European Political Community with the participation of the leaders of the EU, Ukraine, Great Britain and Canada.
What does the summit in Yerevan mean for Armenia and how can it change the balance of power in the South Caucasus?
That's what Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO, Bratislava) Grigory Mesejnikov:
- This is an important event. Maybe it is less important for those states of Western Europe, which participate in this project. But for Armenia, I think, it is more important, because it is a signal that Armenia, starting from its former foreign policy doctrine, begins to participate more actively in cooperation with Western countries.
Armenia from the geopolitical point of view is in a very difficult situation, and the former leadership of the country after achieving independence was oriented to Russia, which, as it turned out, was not a real ally for Armenia, but played its own games in the South Caucasus.
Now there is an opportunity to strengthen, maybe, somewhere even begin to play its own games in the South Caucasus. Of course, they will not play such games that Russia played.
It is important for Armenia not only in the context of relations with Russia, but also in the regional dimension. Turkey, as far as I know, is not a member of this political community, although, as the media wrote, it seems to have received an invitation. For Armenia's relations with Turkey, the very fact that Armenia will join closer cooperation with the West will be important.
From this point of view, I think partnership with Western countries can bring positive results to Armenia.
- Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said that Yerevan will not allow the country to turn into a "province" of Russia and that Armenia will not be "governed like Belarus". Why did the Lukashenko regime so painfully perceive this comparison and what does it say about the real status of Belarus in its relations with Russia?"
- This is a really strong statement by the parliament speaker, because it shows: Armenia's geopolitical orientation is beginning to change. And the fact that Belarus was cited as a negative example caused such a painful reaction of Lukashenko precisely because it hit the mark. In fact, Lukashenko betrayed the national interests of his country.
In fact, he made Belarus at least an unconditional ally of Russia, and in some issues - just a satellite, a vassal state. And, of course, when an Armenian politician calls Belarus a province in this context, I think we could expect that this is how the Lukashenko regime would react.
Because it undermines the narrative that Lukashenko manages to hold on to the independent statehood of Belarus. And here, in the statement of the speaker of the Armenian parliament, all this is put under great doubt - such an interpretation, such a narrative.
- Armenia formally remains in the CSTO and EAEU, but is distancing itself further and further from the Kremlin. Can we already say that these "associations" have lost their meaning as instruments of Russia's influence, and what will happen to Lukashenko and Belarus inside these structures?
- Look, there is already formally a so-called union state, i.e. Belarus is already in certain constellations with this Russian regime. Due to the fact that this state has been a phantom state for a long time, but in some areas the cooperation of these two repressive regimes is easier to carry out thanks to this structure.
In fact, these two organizations, the CSTO and the EAEU, are, in principle, instruments of Russian penetration, influence and domination. This has been the case from the very beginning. Even when the Russian government was less repressive and less aggressive, nevertheless all of this was built to achieve Russia's strategic goals.
Particularly after the annexation of Crimea and after the beginning of a large-scale war in Ukraine, the leaders of those states that are still formally part of these structures realized that Russia, of course, will not protect anyone. Russia will only defend itself. And not even to protect, but rather to pursue an aggressive policy, to play its geopolitical games, to put its own people in power in these countries and so on.
It is quite possible that in the end only Russia and Belarus will remain members, and all other states will consider this situation as disadvantageous for themselves and will withdraw from these associations.