How Fast Will The Dollar Appreciate In Belarus?
- 1.06.2026, 9:29
Expert Prediction.
In the last week of May, the reversal of the national currency rate, which was discussed in the previous review, continued to take shape in the Belarusian currency market. What rates to expect and how the Belarusian currency market will behave in the first days of summer, explains in the traditional review for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
Dollar began to grow
The U.S. dollar exchange rate was changing in various ways, but in general, the dollar rate rose by +0.34% at the end of the week. By the start of this year, the exchange rate's decline of -4.92% persists. The closing rate of the week USD/BYN 2.760, although as early as Tuesday, May 26, the dollar exchange rate rose to a local maximum of USD/BYN 2.7703.The dollar trading volume more than halved compared to the previous week and amounted to USD 67.788 mln. It is obvious that the peak of interest in the U.S. currency was on May 19, which is indirectly confirmed by the report of the National Bank on the purchase of foreign currency in international reserve assets.
The rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange also changed towards growth and reached RUB/BYN 3.8674 per 100 Russian rubles by the end of the trading week. The day before, Thursday, May 28, the ruble was rising on the BCSE to 3.872. In general, the growth of the ruble rate amounted to +0.23% for the week, while the increase in the ruble is already 4.36% by the beginning of the year. The volume of ruble trading last week amounted to an average of Br17.067.390 million, or about $239.17 million.
An indirect confirmation of the fact that the National Bank has reduced the purchase of foreign currency in the domestic market can be seen in the reduction of the difference between the quotations on the stock exchanges and the rates of purchase and sale of foreign currency in commercial banks. In mid-May, with the highest volumes of trading on the BCSE, banks put out higher rates. But by the end of May, this difference narrowed, and in the last days of the month, bank rates are converging with exchange rates.
What restrains the growth of the dollar?
The marked reversal of exchange rates of foreign currencies has a chance to strengthen with the beginning of June 2026. The Russian financial market is awaiting a decision by the Finance Ministry on a likely increase in the volume of foreign currency purchases from the current 1.5 billion rubles to 10 - 12 billion rubles. Such a decision may be made on June 3.
In addition, against the background of the announced 60-day truce between the U.S. and Iran and the probable signing of the final document, the price of oil on world markets by the end of last week fell to 91.70 USD/Br after the highs of late April in 110-120 USD/Br. Russian Urals oil, however, continues to trade above 100 USD/br and, on top of that, the European Union intends to revise the price ceiling for Russian oil upwards.
Weekly Forecast
Another factor of softening support for the ruble could be the potential for the Bank of Russia to cut its key rate by 1.00% at the June meeting. This was mentioned by the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Mr. Aksakov.
Thereby, with the beginning of June, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in the Russian financial market may move away from the annual minimums. For the Belarusian currency market, this means the continuation of the dollar rate reversal and the USD/BYN currency pair reaching the level of about 2.85.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the BCSE will be formed under the influence of the foreign economic balance, but with the growth of commodity exchange between Belarus and Russia, a high rate of the Russian currency is more interesting for the Belarusian budget. We will see how it will affect the fx trading by mid-June.