Which Will End First—the War Or Putin?
- 14.06.2026, 9:43
The Times assessed the prospects.
The war against Ukraine launched by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has already lasted longer than World War I, yet there are no signs that it is coming to an end.
Meanwhile, as noted in a major analysis by The Times, experts are increasingly asking themselves: which will end first—the war or the political era of the Russian dictator?
Journalists noted that in February 2022, the Kremlin expected to take Kyiv in three days, but something went wrong, and now, more than four years later, the Russian invasion has turned into a protracted and extremely costly war of attrition.
According to Russian independent journalists and Western intelligence, Russian military casualties could range from 225,000 to 500,000. Meanwhile, the Kremlin itself does not disclose casualty figures.
“Putin, a former KGB officer who grew up on inspiring stories of the Soviet Army’s heroic feats, prefers to ignore such horrors,” the publication noted.
The journalists added that Putin is demonstrating confidence in victory and rejecting ideas of compromise. In particular, he rejected a proposal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold a face-to-face meeting to discuss ending the war.
“He is very patient. He believes in victory,” a source close to the Kremlin told the publication.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to increase pressure on Russia. In recent months, Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles have been increasingly striking military targets and strategic infrastructure deep within Russian territory. According to the publication, Kyiv is actively ramping up its own production of missile weapons, which allows it to be less dependent on supplies from Western allies.
What’s Happening in Russia
At the same time, within Russia itself, signs of war fatigue are becoming increasingly apparent. Journalists noted that the Kremlin is trying to maintain the appearance of normal life, especially in Moscow, but public sentiment is gradually shifting. More and more Russians admit they are tired of the war, even if they are not ready to openly criticize the government.
At the same time, analysts see no signs of an imminent collapse of Putin’s regime. According to a study by the NEST think tank, the Russian economy has adapted to sanctions and military spending, and security forces maintain full control over the situation within the country.
Therefore, hopes that economic difficulties will force Putin to end the war seem far-fetched. Although the economy is suffering, there are no real signs that it is on the verge of collapse. There are also no signs that Putin is vulnerable to a popular uprising or a palace coup, the publication noted, citing the NEST report.
The authors of the article also drew attention to another problem for the Kremlin—the growing influence of ultra-nationalists, who consider Putin not tough enough and demand further escalation of the war.
Former Russian oligarch and now Putin’s enemy Mikhail Khodorkovsky believes that serious changes in Russia can only begin after he leaves power. However, experts currently see neither the preconditions for a change of power in Russia nor any signs of an imminent end to the war. Therefore, the question of which will end first—the war or the Putin era—remains open.