The Dollar Surprises Us Again
- 15.06.2026, 8:18
Why the U.S. dollar didn't rise.
After attempting to rise in early June, and contrary to previous forecasts, the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian foreign exchange market shows no signs of rising. In his regular review for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
The dollar is steadily depreciating
Last week, the U.S. dollar closed trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange with a final loss of -1.61%. As of the start of this year, the dollar has continued to decline by -4.51%. The main "blow" to the dollar came on Tuesday, June 9, when the "buck" fell to USD/BYN 2.7671. This was followed by a minor correction, and the week closed with the dollar at USD/BYN 2.7715. The volume of dollar trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange for the week barely exceeded fifty million, totaling $51.935 million.
The Russian ruble exchange rate remained virtually unchanged during the same period. Over the past week, the ruble lost a minimal -0.05%; year-to-date, the exchange rate remains up by +3.19%. On Tuesday, the ruble rose to RUB/BYN 3.8581 per 100 Russian rubles in Belarusian trading, but by the end of the trading week it had returned to RUB/BYN 3.8241. The ruble trading volume for the week was also slightly below average at 13,536.030 million rubles, or about $188 million in equivalent.
What kept the dollar steady?
The reversal of the dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian market was similar to the change in the dollar exchange rate on the Russian financial market and, most likely, was linked to a relatively small increase in currency purchases by the Russian Ministry of Finance, accompanied by a simultaneous increase in currency supply following the April highs in Russian oil prices.
It should be recalled that with the onset of the Middle East conflict in early March, the price of Russian Urals crude reached $107–110 per barrel, with the current cut-off price at $59 per barrel. In addition, the U.S. Treasury has maintained the suspension of sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons for three consecutive months. Consequently, April and May saw a substantial influx of additional revenue for Russian exporters, which is now entering the foreign exchange market with a time lag. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, additional revenues in May amounted to 175 billion rubles, compared to 21 billion in April 2026. In June, additional revenues are expected to exceed 220 billion rubles. However, the increase in currency purchases on June 3 was much lower than market expectations.
In addition, the Bank of Russia’s persistently high key rate is hindering attempts to allow the ruble to depreciate gradually. This issue was the subject of high-level discussions last week, ranging from the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin attended by representatives of major businesses.
Current inflation in Russia slowed to 5.31% in May 2026, a fact that will undoubtedly be taken into account at the next meeting of the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors on Friday, June 19. The only question is what move the Russian regulator might make. Market participants’ expectations range from 0.5% to 1.0%. And yet, even if the Central Bank cuts the key rate by one percentage point, it will still be high enough for the market to feel the impact in the form of a weaker ruble.
On Wednesday, June 17, the two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary committee also concludes. There is a view that the U.S. regulator may follow the ECB’s lead and raise the interest rate by 0.25%. The latest inflation data from the U.S. shows the process is accelerating, which may force the newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take the extremely unpopular step of raising rates.
Currency Forecast for the Week
Overall, the coming week will be packed with financial news, but the Belarusian currency market remains stable, with exchange rates for major currencies fluctuating within a relatively narrow range. All factors exerting pressure on and supporting the Russian market are reflected in Belarusian trading in that the US dollar remains near current levels with minimal fluctuations.
At a time when Belarus’s foreign trade was conducted largely in US dollars and euros, high exchange rates were beneficial to the state budget. With the shift in influence toward the Russian ruble, the budget’s currency interests are also changing.
Thus, this week the dollar exchange rate will most likely remain around USD/BYN 2.775–2.790. The Russian ruble will also remain unchanged.