A Political Analyst Explained Why Cole Hasn't Visited Belarus In So Long

• 16.06.2026, 9:41

Lukashenko asked for too much.

Political commentator Vitaly Tsygankov stated on "Belsat" stated that pause in U.S. negotiations with Lukashenko arose due to Minsk’s excessive demands; however, according to him, the process has not stopped, as both sides remain interested in it. Meanwhile, U.S. President’s envoy John Cole reported that his next visit to Belarus will take place “in the near future.”

“This is a rather complex process all the time, and nothing is guaranteed until the very last moment. Even when John Cole arrives, there is no certainty regarding the names, the numbers, or what America must concede to official Minsk in return,” – said Tsygankov on air, commenting on the pause between visits to Belarus by the U.S. president’s envoy.

According to the analyst, the delay occurred due to Minsk’s excessive demands. Cygankov, citing information from sources, stated that he knows what the Belarusian authorities wanted, but did not disclose any details:

“Minsk did not ask for anything extraordinary, but it asked for too much. And America said, ‘No, that’s a no.’ And as a way, so to speak, to formalize this disagreement, this pause occurred, and moreover, both sides took steps that could be described as unfriendly.” That was when Cole’s first public call to Tikhanovskaya took place; this was, of course, a jab at official Minsk.”

Belsat’s source noted that U.S. negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko “hang by a thread every time,” but the process will continue, as both sides remain interested:

“Lukashenko hasn’t achieved what he wanted. He probably thought that the Americans would start easing sanctions, and the Europeans would follow suit, like, so to speak, a small Brussels district committee following Washington’s regional committee. He overestimated the Europeans’ dependence; they haven’t budged an inch from their position. He’s freaking out, getting nervous, trying a different approach. He still wants a lot from America, but America’s main goal—whether it’s humanitarian or political, aimed at securing some kind of victory for Trump—is the release of all political prisoners. We’re all praying that this happens.”

Meanwhile, on June 16, Cole responded on the social media platform X.com to a question about when his visit to Minsk would take place: “Soon.”

Against the backdrop of negotiations with the U.S.—which, though on hold, have not actually ceased—the Belarusian authorities continue to persecute dissent, and some accounts suggest that the repression is intensifying. One such example is the case of the European Humanities University (EUU), which has been designated an “extremist organization.” According to recent data from human rights activists, security forces have already conducted at least 60 searches of graduates, students, and other individuals allegedly associated with the university, as well as their relatives.

Tsygankov called this an “unprecedented and new” phenomenon:

“Previously, they detained and imprisoned or punished those who participated in certain events or protests in 2020, 2022, or later. They’re imprisoning people who do things—for comments, for likes, for helping Ukraine, for certain photos. But here, for the first time, people will be prosecuted not for any actions, but simply for having studied at a Western university in Vilnius. They may not hold any opposition views; they simply attended university to get a Western education.”

The analyst also commented on the story of Iranian citizen Khatere Khadadadi, who was deported from Belarus to Armenia for posting about protests in her home country.

“This is a case where one can quote the Belarusian proverb: ‘It’s no surprise that the grandfather has a gray beard.’ It’s no surprise that the Iranian security forces made such a request to arrest a ‘bad oppositionist.’” There is a sort of dictatorial international at work here, and Belarus will fulfill any wish of its Korean comrades, its Moscow comrades, and its Iranian comrades,” said Tsygankov.

As for the draconian sentences handed down to the parents of a Belarusian woman who is volunteering in Ukraine, the expert attributed them to the tense relations between Kyiv and Minsk. Dmitry and Tatyana Korsakov were charged with “treason,” “illegal actions involving weapons,” and “illegal transportation of weapons across the border.” Dmitry was sentenced to 14 years, Tatyana to 12, and their daughter Pelagia to 11 years in absentia.

According to Tsygankov, this case emerged against the backdrop of harsh statements from Kyiv directed at official Minsk, and there is no way to respond.

“Lukashenko has basically kept his mouth shut here; he mostly remains silent. He responded to Zelenskyy once, but for the most part, he’s trying not to escalate the situation, as he fears it could actually escalate into some kind of armed conflict. Well, what can they do? They can go after the relatives of people working for Ukraine, who support Ukraine... That’s the only way they can take revenge and retaliate,” the political analyst concluded.