"Muscovites Will Have To Go Skiing"
- 16.06.2026, 14:36
Roman Svitán explained how Ukraine could cut off gasoline supplies to the Russian capital.
Ukraine dealt a powerful blow to Moscow last night, striking the "heart" of an oil refinery. Regarding the consequences of this strike and more, the website Charter97.org spoke with retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel, military expert, and flight instructor Roman Svitana:
— This is the so-called Kapotninsky Oil Refinery, which is already about a hundred years old. Lenin himself built it back in the day. Remember him in that photo with the log? Well, that was him in Kapotna. Back then, they were just starting to build it, and this plant, in principle, supplied half of Moscow’s needs. And the other half, by the way, was supplied by the Mozyr Oil Refinery.
Now we can say that the Kapotninsky Oil Refinery has been shut down. The strike hit the oil pre-treatment unit. This is the “heart” of the plant. Without this pre-treatment, the oil cannot be separated into fractions.
The SBU selected a clear, precise target for the drone strike. A single drone was enough, in principle, to completely halt the production cycle at this plant.
Just a few weeks ago, the Russians began building an additional platform for the “Pantsir.” They had practically finished it, but hadn’t yet managed to bring the “Pantsir” into position. This made it possible to bypass one “Pantsir” on the outer ring road outside the Moscow Ring Road (MKAD) and pass through the MKAD, striking this plant. It is literally right next to the MKAD, southeast of Moscow.
They are currently trying to put out the fire at the refinery, but it definitely won’t be operational anytime soon. To completely cut off Moscow’s supply, we need to cut off the oil supply to the Mozyr Oil Refinery. The best option is to strike at Unecha. Unecha is home to a pipeline control station that supplies the Mozyr refinery with oil from Tatarstan via the Druzhba pipeline.
If we manage to cut off the Druzhba pipeline as well, more than half of Muscovites will be left without fuel. They’ll have to go skiing.
— How did the SBU manage to breach Moscow’s air defense?
— Most likely, by operating in a mode that exceeded the saturation coefficient. The Russians say they shot down about 60 drones today, and if they were approaching the “Pantsir” system—which was located beyond the Moscow Ring Road near Kapotnya (there’s another "Pantsir" is there), then they simply overloaded that "Pantsir" with drones.
So while the "Pantsir" was reloading, one or two drones got through. This is called exceeding the saturation coefficient along a single azimuth. That is, they didn’t approach from all sides, but specifically penetrated a single "Pantsir." Yes, they lost dozens of drones, but just one is enough to set the oil on fire, so they accomplished this mission.
— Could such strikes become routine?
— They were already routine before this; they just couldn’t get through. If the Russians had managed to deploy an additional “Pantsir” system in the Kapotnya area, believe me, there wouldn’t have been this strike today, because then their saturation coefficient would have been over a hundred along a single azimuth.
There is a significant concentration of air defense systems in the Moscow area. At any given moment, they can strike 700 targets across all azimuths if they attack from a star formation. This, by the way, is the saturation coefficient: 701 drones would get through, but that’s too many. It makes sense to shoot down 700 drones so that just one gets through to Moscow—just for May 9.
However, the efficiency is quite good; the plant has been shut down. The SBU takes a comprehensive approach to fulfilling its tasks, not ruling out the possibility that certain actions were taken there involving jamming, that is, electronic warfare. A whole range of measures to suppress air defense. It wasn’t just a matter of “slipping through.” Our SBU is doing a great job. We now have pilots, sailors, submariners, and cosmonauts.