"Lukashenko Will Fall In An Instant"
- 17.06.2026, 12:50
A Ukrainian lawmaker revealed why the dictator began apologizing to Zelenskyy.
In an interview with Al Arabiya TV, Lukashenko tried to portray himself as a proponent of peace and stated that he does not want Belarus to be dragged into a war against Ukraine.
Why did Lukashenko decide to make such statements right now and once again try on the role of a “peacemaker”? The website Charter97.org posed this question to Oleg Dunda, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the “Servant of the People” party:
— First of all, Lukashenko has confirmed that Belarus is, de facto, a country that cannot defend itself and has no army. This confirms my assertion that, in the event of a Ukrainian military operation, Lukashenko’s regime would crumble in an instant. Immediately, in the blink of an eye. It wouldn’t even take three days. In fact, there would be virtually no fighting. Ukraine is capable of calmly entering Minsk with practically not a single shot fired. Because no one on Lukashenko’s side will be able to fight against Ukraine at all.
Why did Lukashenko say this? It’s quite simple. As time goes on, more and more information—including public reports—is emerging that Moscow is trying to use Belarus as a staging ground for operations in the Baltic region. Consequently, Western European countries’ attitude toward Belarus is gradually changing.
At the same time, however, Russia is using Belarus as a staging ground to infiltrate the European Union with Russians holding visas and Belarusian passports. They do not want to lose this opportunity. But to do so, they need to portray Belarus as an independent state that is trying to maintain good-neighborly relations with the countries of the European Union.
This is precisely what Lukashenko’s latest statements are driven by. I would say this is a simple, very simple old KGB game. There is absolutely nothing new or extraordinary about it. It’s very easy to read; it’s very simple.
As for Lukashenko’s statements regarding Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that’s a more interesting story. This statement indicates that even Lukashenko has begun to realize that Zelenskyy is quite influential in the European Union and among European countries. Without his consent or approval, no issue involving the European Union can simply be resolved. In other words, this confirms Ukraine’s status in Europe. That is why they are trying to play this game and are forced to flatter Zelenskyy so that he does not block Lukashenko’s attempts.
— Lukashenko is completely dependent on the Kremlin and, in fact, remains Putin’s puppet. What signal might Moscow be sending through such statements by the dictator? Is it possible that Putin will again try to promote Belarus as a venue for negotiations?
— We must understand that Moscow does not view Ukraine as a party to this war. For them, this war is not against Ukraine; it is a war against Europe. And why negotiate with Ukraine if they are fighting to return to the days of the Warsaw Pact?
The Kremlin needs, first and foremost, to reach an agreement—or a so-called separate agreement—on the security architecture in Europe specifically with the Europeans and the European Union. In this case, they view Ukraine as a platform. And who talks to a staging ground? That’s why this makes no sense to them.
These statements are being used to preserve Belarus as a staging ground for infiltrating agents and exerting influence on the European Union’s border regions.
— What should Ukraine’s appropriate response be to Lukashenko’s words, given that his actual actions contradict his statements? After all, Belarus is helping Russia with navigation for the “Shaheds,” and Belarusian oil refineries are ramping up gasoline shipments to Russia.
— It’s quite simple. Belarus’s industrial capacity must work toward Ukraine’s victory. And for that to happen, Ukraine must bring about a change in power in Belarus. I think you can guess how.”