The Guardian: How Putin Wants To Use Belarus
- 18.06.2026, 9:50
The Kremlin is creating a new kind of challenge for Europe.
Ukraine is strengthening its defenses along the border with Belarus due to concerns that Russia is gradually drawing Alexander Lukashenko’s regime into its war. While there are no signs of preparations for a new offensive from Belarusian territory, officials in Kyiv believe that Moscow may use Belarus as a springboard to increase pressure on Ukraine and Europe. This is discussed in the article The Guardian.
The publication noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously reported “unusual activity” along the Belarusian border. There have also been media reports that Belarus is expanding infrastructure capable of supporting Russian operations. This includes logistics routes, training grounds, and communications and surveillance infrastructure that aids Russian drone strikes against Ukraine.
Officials emphasize that, at this time, there is no evidence that Russian troops or the Belarusian army are concentrating large forces near the border to invade Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian and European officials are concerned that Moscow is increasingly integrating Minsk into its military efforts, particularly through joint nuclear exercises that took place earlier this year.
Among those who have expressed concern about Belarus’s intentions is former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. In an interview, he stated that Lukashenko’s actions today differ from his behavior in 2022, when he allowed his territory to be used for the Russian invasion.
“I’m not saying that an offensive will begin tomorrow. I’m saying that I see something different—a series of events that give reason to believe Lukashenko is preparing for war,” Kuleba said.
What Lukashenko’s rhetoric means
Other experts also point to the intensification of pro-Russian rhetoric in Belarus, despite the fact that Moscow’s war against Ukraine is increasingly reaching a stalemate.
“Russia is at a strategic impasse. Russia is facing serious problems on the front lines because we are beginning to win this war. Lukashenko’s use of such narratives and propaganda is an attempt to somehow explain and justify this situation. And Putin is putting pressure on Lukashenko, demanding closer cooperation and deeper involvement of his military system in the war against Ukraine, which is why Lukashenko is trying to explain this to his audience,” said Ukrainian politician and political scientist Maksym Pleshko.
At the same time, other analysts, in particular the director of the Institute of World Politics Yevgeny Magda, are very skeptical about the possibility that Lukashenko would risk deploying Belarusian troops to support Moscow.
However, the publication notes that if there is a broad consensus among experts in Ukraine and beyond, it is that Moscow, facing an increasingly deep impasse on the current front, may use Belarus to threaten to expand the geography of the conflict not only against Ukraine but also, potentially, in a broader European context.
What the Military Sees
Journalists from the publication visited the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in the Chernihiv region, in settlements that were under Russian occupation for several months in 2022. Now, according to them, workers are installing coils of barbed wire along the narrow road leading to the border, while an excavator is digging new anti-tank barriers.
“It’s no secret that Belarus served as a springboard for the 2022 invasion, so there is no trust in Belarus. We’ve heard many statements from Lukashenko. We see joint military exercises, including nuclear ones. We must be prepared for any scenario. That’s why we’re building fortifications every day. Given the local terrain and what we’ve already done, in my opinion, it would be nearly impossible for tanks, military vehicles, and infantry to advance here. ‘Everything would be destroyed,’ said a major in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine with the call sign Nissan.
According to Nissan, there are no signs of a troop buildup. However, available data indicates that the Kremlin is seeking to make even more active use of the key air corridor across the border to launch strikes against Ukraine.
“We are seeing an increase in the number of reconnaissance drones flying from the Bryansk region [of Russia, through Belarus, into Ukraine] to gather data on our troops,” said Nissan.
Local residents have already become experts on drones
Local residents have also noticed these trends. At a store in the village of Novye Yarilovichi, located five kilometers from the border and home to about 300 residents, 55-year-old Natalia Lanna and 57-year-old Svetlana Sotvikova told reporters that they see Russian drones every day.
“Last night, 16 drones flew over us, in groups of two. Sometimes they fly so low over the village—at an altitude of about 20 meters—that it feels like I could catch them with my bare hands,” says Natalya.
According to Svetlana, local residents can already tell the difference between attack drones and reconnaissance drones. She says that the “Gerbera” reconnaissance drone has a different sound and color, and it circles over the area.
A Different Kind of Challenge
According to some analysts, it is precisely what local residents and military personnel on the border are seeing that reflects the true nature of the risk: not Moscow’s sudden opening of a new front, but the gradual expansion of the scale of Russian activities involving Belarus.
“For European policymakers, recent events in Belarus present a different kind of challenge. This cements Belarus’s hybrid role—one that falls short of full-fledged participation in the war but simultaneously deepens the country’s indirect involvement in Russian aggression. For the Kremlin, this approach makes sense. After all, Belarus is more useful to Moscow as a stable rear support base than as an unstable ally on the battlefield,” wrote Belarusian journalist Anna Lyubakova in a recent report for the Atlantic Council.
According to the journalist, as Belarus becomes more deeply integrated into Russia’s military efforts, incidents involving its territory—whether drone activity, airspace violations, or other forms of pressure—“are likely to become more frequent and more difficult to interpret.”