FT: Putin's War Machine Is Stalling
- 21.06.2026, 13:48
Ukraine has put the Kremlin in a "catch-up" position.
The plumes of smoke over Moscow after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian capital’s largest oil refinery, clearly demonstrate that Kyiv’s technological progress has put the forces of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin on the defensive.
Since 2022, Moscow has relied on numerical and firepower superiority on the battlefield, while simultaneously launching airstrikes against cities and energy infrastructure far behind the front lines. However, Ukrainian developments in the field of medium- and long-range UAVs have ultimately begun to destroy air bases, army convoys, and oil refineries hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian territory, writes Financial Times.
At the same time, we must not forget the occupiers’ slow advance on the front lines. From February to May, they captured a total of just 164 square kilometers—compared to 1,151 square kilometers during the same period last year. “Russia’s problem is that its current tactics do not provide the tools for major successes, and it is unable to find new tools,” noted Emil Kastehelmi , co-founder of the Finnish war monitoring organization Black Bird .
Why the Russian Offensive Has Stalled Now
Media reports indicate that the occupiers’ advance typically slows down in late winter and early spring, then picks up again in May. However, in June, there are no signs of a renewed offensive along the entire front line.
Russian commanders continue to send small groups of soldiers to storm battlefields saturated with drones in an attempt to find gaps in Ukrainian positions.
But Kyiv’s successes in the drone war have turned the tide.
“Robotization has made troop numbers significantly less important—and that has changed Kyiv’s position,” said a person involved in the military effort. “You need ten to twenty thousand drone operators, not hundreds of thousands of soldiers sitting in trenches. The face of war is changing.”
The drone war has also significantly eroded the Kremlin’s advantage in manpower. According to Ukrainian officials, for nearly half a year, Russia has been losing more people on the battlefield than it has been able to recruit.
Russian budget data indicates that 71,216 people were recruited in the first quarter of 2026—compared to 89,601 during the same period last year, according to calculations by Janis Klug, an expert on Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Where Ukraine has expanded its drone and missile strikes, isolating Kremlin forces on the front lines and cutting off supply lines, Russia’s elite “Rubicon” drone unit has still not managed to develop similar capabilities.
“They are technically behind, cannot scale up, and lack communications. This is very telling. The methods of the ‘gunpowder empire’—artillery and small arms—are no longer enough,” the article states.
Ukraine’s Attacks and Russia’s Responses
Ukraine’s new, ongoing drone campaign is based on strikes at the so-called “medium” depth—about 150 kilometers from the front line.
Since May, hundreds of drones of all types have been flying toward the land corridor to Crimea —a key route used by Russian forces to supply the peninsula, which was annexed in 2014, as well as troops deployed on the southern front.
“We’re now striking trucks every day,” said the chief of staff of Ukraine’s 412th “Nemesis” Drone Brigade Artem Belenkov.
Russian troops are waiting longer for fuel and ammunition resupply, and logistics units are increasingly switching to smaller, less conspicuous trucks or making their way along bumpy village roads instead of Highway R-280. “This isn’t critical, but it’s painful” for the Russian military, Belenkov emphasized.
In response to these new challenges, Moscow is launching a large-scale recruitment campaign for drone units—in particular, “Rubicon.”
Meanwhile, this shift is accompanied by its own growing pains. The Russian defense sector is operating at virtually full capacity: record-low unemployment makes it difficult to attract qualified personnel to cutting-edge technologies, including drone production, journalists note.
Production is largely stagnating outside the fields of unmanned systems and long-range weapons—areas where Russia is directing the most resources. Although output has increased, “the military-industrial complex has plateaued.” All production capacity is being utilized to the limit. Expanding it without investment is impossible, and doing so would take years.
It is reported that Putin and his inner circle are forced to insist that Russia still maintains the upper hand in the war, while downplaying the increasingly tangible consequences of the Ukrainian campaign of strikes. The Russian president spends most of his time micromanaging the military effort and receives briefings from his chief of staff Valery Gerasimov—sometimes twice a day.
He believes it is only a matter of time. It may happen sooner or later, but he will get his way. Putin is highly susceptible to the influence of the military, who skillfully lead him by the nose, according to media reports. He understands this, but he sincerely trusts them and allows them to act.
The Kremlin cannot find answers to the questions
Just recently, Putin met in the Kremlin with a group of military officers who repeatedly asked him when Russian forces would develop a response to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network —which Ukraine uses to guide strike drones on the front lines. One of the military personnel said: “The enemy is using swarms of strike drones controlled by AI systems. We need to stay ahead of the enemy in this race, not fall behind.”
Putin—to the obvious bewilderment of the military officers—stated that Russia had already developed and deployed its own response to Starlink, which allegedly works but will take time to scale up. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov immediately informed him that only 16 units had been launched—which Putin described as “absolutely insufficient.”
When asked for the third time when Russia would catch up with Ukraine technologically, Putin launched into a lengthy tirade about how Moscow is standing up to the combined might of NATO countries, spicing it up with historical references to Napoleon and Hitler. “The enemy lacks many things, but we have them—and we will have more and better ones,” he concluded.