What Does Zelenskyy's Ultimatum Mean For Belarusian Oil Refineries?
- 23.06.2026, 11:59
Lukashenko won't be able to protect the factories.
Last week Volodymyr Zelenskyy strongly demanded that the Belarusian authorities shut down special equipment—relay stations that help Russian drones carry out strikes on Ukraine. But that’s not all. In the Ukrainian president’s speech, there was a very clear hint at how the Lukashenko regime is profiting from the war—and Kyiv sees this perfectly well.
“We know about every factory in Belarus that is working for Russia and for this war.” Every enterprise supplying components for Russian weapons—for armored vehicles, for missile systems—as well as enterprises supplying Russia with fuel for the war—all of this is dragging Belarus into the war,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
No direct threat was made that facilities working for the Russian defense-industrial complex might be “targeted.” But if we recall the words of the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces Robert “Madyar” Brovdi regarding the 500 targets already identified by the Ukrainian military in the event of an offensive from Belarusian territory, as well as the oil refineries and oil depots in Russia that are regularly set ablaze—there is reason to give this serious thought.
After all, while Lukashenko might indeed be able to shut down the repeaters on the towers—or simply “overlook” Ukrainian strikes against them—it doesn’t work that way with industrial facilities. Can the Belarusian authorities protect both of their oil refineries, and where would they sell the fuel if not to Russia? “Filin” “Filin” asked economic columnist Andrei Makhovsky.
“There haven’t been any threats regarding the refineries yet,” the expert notes. — The ultimatum specifically demands action regarding the relay stations. And Lukashenko is perfectly capable of shutting them down. Even if it damages his reputation, in my opinion, damage to his reputation is by far better than damage to the country.
It’s possible that the oil refineries will be, so to speak, the next step—a proposal to shut them down, or more precisely, to cut off gasoline supplies to Russia. But so far—no.
To be honest, I can’t really imagine what Lukashenko can do in this situation. Because he can’t protect his own plants. As he himself admitted, he’s completely exposed to Ukraine, and in general, he and all his generals are already as good as dead.
Russia doesn’t seem all that eager to defend Belarusian enterprises either. Just yesterday, Putin’s spokesman Peskov said: “We believe in you; you’re doing great; you’re strong; you’re brave; you’ll manage on your own if anything happens.” Well, really: how is Putin going to defend Lukashenko and his oil refinery when he doesn’t even have enough air defense to protect Moscow?
— Let’s say Lukashenko took Ukraine’s warnings very seriously and decided to quietly cut back on fuel supplies to Russia. Where else could he go, when selling gasoline to Russia is currently a gold mine?
— By the way, it’s not a gold mine at all. Fuel shipments from Belarus to Russia aren’t particularly profitable for Belarus. The Russian market isn’t a premium market for Belarusian gasoline and Belarusian diesel.
So Belarus does supply fuel to Russia—but, at least at the end of last year, it was on a toll-processing basis. In other words, Russia brings its oil here and refines it, but the resulting products are the property of Russian companies. They simply pay Belarusian refineries for the processing.
You can’t make much money on toll processing; there isn’t a large margin. Although, apparently, there were additional conditions under which Lukashenko receives Russian oil on more favorable terms than Russia sells it for.
However, I’ll say it again: the Russian market isn’t a premium market for Belarus. Setting aside political issues—the fact that Belarusian petroleum products have to pass through Russia (and to sell them, you need Russia’s goodwill), it would be far more profitable for Belarus to sell its petroleum products to countries in Africa and Asia. Which is, in fact, where the country was selling them until last fall.
— And if Ukraine takes more decisive steps, then…
— Then we could supply petroleum products to African countries; that’s all fine. But there is, first of all, a logistical issue: they’d have to be transported through Russian territory.
And second, the problem is that we get our oil from Russia. And if Lukashenko says, “I won’t sell to you anymore—Zelenskyy is threatening me”—then Russia might start supplying oil on terms that aren’t as favorable as before. And that’s just from an economic standpoint, without considering political or psychological factors.
— So, are there no positive scenarios for Belarusian refineries?
— If Zelenskyy demands that fuel shipments to Russia be halted, then, generally speaking, there really aren’t any positive scenarios. But today this is still a hypothetical situation, because no such demand has been made.