The Times: Putin Found Himself Faced With A Choice Between Two Options
- 28.06.2026, 15:15
The Kremlin leader is afraid of losing Crimea.
Kyiv hopes that by threatening Russian dictator Vladimir Putin with the loss of Crimea, which he has occupied, will force him to the negotiating table. However, there is a risk that this will, on the contrary, push the Kremlin to escalate the conflict.
This is according to columnist and Eastern Europe expert Mark Galeotti writing for The Sunday Times, noting that Crimea is of immense strategic and political importance to Putin.
The Ukrainian government has pledged to restore control over all territories occupied by Russia; it is tacitly assumed that Kyiv will have to accept Moscow’s de facto control over Crimea as the price of peace, Galeotti notes. Thus, the Russian dictator will have to negotiate on Kyiv’s terms if he wants to end the blockade and eliminate the threat to the peninsula.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears confident in the viability of this strategy. In particular, the Ukrainian leader approved a 40-day “operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to put pressure on the aggressor state with the aim of compelling it to end the war.”
The author of the article notes that Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is also optimistic. Galeotti notes that while a new sense of confidence prevails in Kyiv, pessimism is growing in Russia.
However, the outcome may turn out to be far less predictable and controllable than Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely believes. The author describes two approaches to the war against Ukraine that prevail among the Russian elite.
As Mark Galeotti notes, there are pragmatists who believe that Russia needs to freeze the conflict. In their view, Moscow would be better off holding onto what it has already occupied, declaring victory, and beginning negotiations to secure the lifting of at least some Western sanctions and an end to Ukrainian Defense Forces’ strikes deep into Russian territory.
At the same time, the response from the maximalist camp is escalation, including the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists and, possibly, more aggressive operations against European factories that supply weapons to Ukraine, the columnist writes.
Such a strategy would be very risky, but for hardliners who do not believe in Ukraine’s ability to withstand an offensive by fresh troops, it is a good bet. At the same time, Putin remains cautious and is likely not yet convinced.
However, when the Russian dictator panics, he tends to take hasty and ill-advised steps, warns Mark Galeotti. If Putin fears that losing the peninsula will lead to his downfall, he may sit down at the negotiating table—but he might just as easily give in to pressure to raise the stakes.