ISW: Russia's Summer Offensive Is Doomed

• 4.06.2026, 10:20

Analysts explained what mistake the occupiers made.

Russia is trying to encircle Liman according to the same scheme as in 2022 - and again it "stalls". But this time the occupiers' starting position is much worse.

American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports about it.

The scheme is not new

Russia is trying to gain a foothold to the north, northeast and east of Liman. ISW analysts compare this to the campaign in the summer of 2022, when the occupiers wanted to widely encircle the city - from Liman in the northeast to Izyum in the northwest.

Then the attempt failed: in September-October 2022, Ukraine knocked the Russians out of both Izyum and Liman in a matter of weeks.

The position is worse than then

As of June 2026, the front line in this direction is significantly less favorable to Russia than it was four years ago.

The attempt to encircle Liman and reach Slavyansk fails again. ISW points out that the Russian command has not drawn conclusions from past failures and continues to set unrealistic goals for itself - despite the deterioration of the army's combat capabilities in 2026.

Offensive Prospects

In the summer of 2026, Russia is unlikely to achieve even tactical successes in the Slavian direction, let alone operational achievements - this is the forecast given by ISW analysts.