Changes In The Currency Market In Belarus
- 8.06.2026, 9:12
The dollar started to rise.
After reaching the annual minimum on May 19, the dollar rate in the Belarusian currency market is returning to the annual average. Financial analyst of myfin.by Mikhail Grachev tells about the reasons for the growth and further dynamics of the rate.
Dollar begins a steady growth
After last week, the dollar exchange rate rose by +2.06%, while by the beginning of the year the dollar's lag reduced to -2.96%. Last week's high on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange was USD/BYN 2.8274 on Thursday, June 4. By Friday, the dollar was corrected and closed last week with the value of USD/BYN 2.8169. The dollar trading volume on the BCSE in the first week of June is around the average value of $87.844 million.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian fx market last week made a reverse movement - from the low of the week on Thursday, June 4, RUB/BYN 3.8161 per 100 Russian rubles to 3.8259 by the end of trading on the BCSE on Friday, June 5. In total, the Russian ruble lost -1.07% over the past week, while since the beginning of the year the ruble's appreciation has decreased to 3.24%. The trading volume of the Russian ruble on the BCSE for the week is about average values of 18,326.24 million rubles, or about $248.90 million in equivalent.
As we expected, the dollar exchange rate began to move upward from the beginning of June under the influence of similar changes in the Russian financial market. On Wednesday, June 3, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced a significant increase in the volume of foreign currency purchase operations within the framework of the budget rule execution. In particular, the total volume of gold and currency purchases was announced in the amount of 208.2 billion rubles, which corresponds to the daily volume of 9.9 billion rubles. This volume the Ministry of Finance intends to purchase in the period from June 5 to July 6.
It was after the announcement of the decision of the Russian Ministry of Finance that the maximum volume returned to the market after the first three days of waiting. In Russia itself, the dollar exchange rate rose to USD/RUB 74.65 on Thursday, pushing back from May's low of 70.75.
World-wide dollar rise
Whether the dollar's rise will continue in the domestic market will be seen in the coming week, but in the global financial market on Friday, the dollar also showed surprising activity. Following the results of Friday's NFP report, almost all major assets fell against the US dollar. The main currency pair EUR/USD closed last week at the low since the beginning of April at 1.1521 with a good prospect of further movement towards 1.1450. Gold also retreated to a two-month low of USD/Oz 4365, the yield on 10-year treasuries rose to 4.536%, bitcoin retreated to BTC/USD 62,011.
It can be said that Friday was the beneficiary of the dollar in the global market. There is only one thing to pay attention to right now - is this a one-off performance or the start of a world tour. Arguments are in favor of both options.
Weekly Forecast
Back to the domestic currency market - the question of the week - how will the trend that emerged in early June develop.
On the one hand - high oil prices provoke inflation in the United States itself, which could lead to a tightening of the Federal Reserve's DCP, which US President Donald Trump would not like so much. On the other hand, high oil prices support the Russian budget, and the increase in the volume of currency purchases by the Russian Ministry of Finance may be offset by an increase in the supply of currency on the domestic market. Besides, nobody has canceled the high key rate, and this is a very strong factor of support for the ruble.
Based on this, the next trading days will be decisive - whether the dollar exchange rate will hold on the achieved positions, go higher or return to the annual minimums. So far this week, the dollar is likely to rise minimally to USD/BYN 2.85. At the same time, the Russian ruble exchange rate is slightly declining in the Belarusian market.