Leszek Szerepka: Things Could Change Quickly For Belarus

• 9.06.2026, 14:23

The former Polish ambassador to Minsk explained what kind of event could trigger change in our country.

Leszek Szerepka — a historian, diplomat, and writer, and former Polish ambassador to Belarus. He knows the inner workings of Lukashenko’s regime well, and in his political thriller *The Belarusian Sniper*, he portrays Belarus as a country where power is built on fear, loyalty, and violence.

The website Charter97.org spoke with Leszek Szerepka not only about his book, but also about relations between the two countries, the situation in the region, and possible changes in Belarus.

— Your book “The Belarusian Sniper” is a political thriller about the Lukashenko regime, as well as about missing Belarusian politicians who were killed on the dictator’s orders. What can you tell us about this book? How relevant is it today?

— I think it’s very relevant. It will remain relevant as long as Lukashenko is in power, because it accurately describes all the methods of operation of this system, which he created more than 30 years ago. Of course, this system wasn’t always the way it is now, but it was moving in a specific direction—increasingly toward authoritarianism and totalitarianism. Well, in the future, this book will serve as a lesson for people living in Belarus: who they should place their trust in.

— The release of Andrzej Poczobut was a significant event for Poland and Belarus. Can this be seen as a signal of possible changes in Warsaw’s policy toward Minsk, or is the Lukashenko regime simply trying to use political prisoners as a bargaining chip?

— This is a special case, because when Lukashenko released political prisoners in the past, he had certain conditions, such as that they not leave Belarus. This time it was an exchange, a simple exchange—person for person. If you recall, among those who were also released by the Polish side was deputy head of Moldova’s security service. Such a prominent figure held a very high position in Moldova’s government, so I think Lukashenko received a good deal in exchange for Andrzej’s freedom.

In Poland, there has always been and still is a group, a faction, that pays very close attention to Lukashenko’s signals, and when it seems to them that he has made some kind of friendly gesture toward Poland, they always say, “We need to start talks, we need to try to reach an agreement with Lukashenko.” This has been going on for over 30 years; we see the result, but I don’t think anything will change in this regard.

— Warnings are growing louder about a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states, with Belarus potentially serving as a staging ground. How serious is this threat, and is Poland prepared for such a turn of events?

— I might surprise you, but I think Putin is lighting candles in church right now to pray that there won’t be a war. I mean, so that it doesn’t spread to other countries, especially NATO countries. If a country is unable to cope with a single adversary—because the Russians have been bogged down in Ukraine for more than four years now—it’s clear that this war could go on for a long time, and it’s clear that they’ve now lost the advantages they had at the start, so what’s the point of starting a war in other areas?

I can only imagine this if, for example, Putin has completely lost his mind and thinks he has no way out, so he has to go all in. Maybe, but I don’t think it would bring him any success, and he won’t win—it’s impossible. I think he’s trying to buy time right now and find some way out of this war, which he started in 2022, trying to extract the maximum benefit for himself from this war. But I’d be very surprised if things went any other way.

— You have a book about Ukraine—*The Ukrainian Gambit*—set during the Maidan. You’ve been following events in that country for a long time. How do you think the war in Ukraine will end? Could Russia’s defeat on the front lines trigger a process of change within the country itself?

— A year ago, I published a book titled “From the Belarusian Wilderness to Crimea.” It’s about Ukraine’s foreign policy up to 2014. I think it is more relevant to this situation than the book on political fiction you mentioned.
I think even the best prophets don’t fully know how the Russian-Ukrainian war will end. But it’s clear that it could drag on for a long time. If it ends in Putin’s defeat (and I think that’s entirely possible provided the West gets a little more actively involved), then that would be the end not only of Putin, but of the entire system he established in Russia more than 20 years ago. And that would likely have a positive impact on Belarus as well.

— How do you see the possibility of liberating Belarus from Lukashenko’s dictatorship today? What could change the situation within the country, given the war in Ukraine, the regime’s complete dependence on the Kremlin, and the fact that Belarus has effectively been drawn into Russian aggression?

— To be honest, I don’t see any possibility of resolving the problem peacefully right now. A peaceful solution probably won’t be possible as long as Putin is in Russia and he is waging war against Ukraine. When someone is waging a war, it is very important for them to have order and calm on the flanks and in the rear. That is why Russia will under no circumstances allow anything to change in Belarus without its consent.

They might be thinking about replacing Lukashenko with someone else, but I always say there’s a proverb: you don’t change horses midstream. I don’t see a peaceful path. Remember the mobilization six years ago after the elections? Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets. And it still didn’t work out.
But times have changed. On the one hand, Russia is more preoccupied with controlling Belarus, but Lukashenko has some room to maneuver. I don’t know to what extent he’s using it, or if he’ll be able to use it. On the other hand, hundreds of thousands of people have left Belarus—the most active, the most pro-Western ones. This has had a slightly negative impact on trends within Belarus itself.

Conditions are worse now than they were six years ago. But there’s a war going on, and, you know, war has its own dynamics—everything can change quickly. But when it does change, it might change in a way that’s favorable to you, and there will be an opportunity to take advantage of that.