The Sun: The Kremlin May Capitulate In A Few Months
- 1.07.2026, 8:18
A dilemma is looming for Putin.
Thanks to Ukraine’s large-scale and uncompromising campaign to launching long-range strikes, the course of the war has undergone radical changes, and Vladimir Putin may find himself facing a dilemma in just a few months: to capitulate or to freeze the conflict.
Military analysts, in comments to The Sun note that systematic strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the aggressor country’s oil and gas infrastructure could completely paralyze the Kremlin’s war machine.
The regime has already faced a total fuel shortage, widespread power outages, and record casualties, which have forced even Putin himself to publicly acknowledge “problems” with supply.
Former Commander of U.S. Army Europe Ben Hodges is convinced that the strategic initiative has completely shifted to Ukraine. Russian ground offensive operations have effectively come to a halt, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet is no longer a significant factor of influence. The main catalyst for this was a large-scale 40-day blitzkrieg involving hundreds of strike drones and long-range missiles.
“If all the privileged youth were to suddenly don the Russian Army’s green uniform, enthusiasm for supporting this war would indeed wane,” Hodges noted.
The relentless attacks on oil depots and refineries (including high-profile strikes on facilities near Moscow) have triggered a serious crisis: more than 50 regions of Russia are now experiencing an acute fuel shortage, and strict limits have been imposed at gas stations.
At the same time, Ukraine is successfully implementing a plan to isolate the occupied Crimea in terms of energy and logistics. The destruction of the Henichesk Bridge and other logistical arteries has led to power outages on the peninsula and forced the occupiers to declare a state of emergency. According to Kira Giles, holding on to Crimea is becoming increasingly impossible for Moscow.
“Putin is gradually being forced to publicly acknowledge more and more of the realities of the war. In this regard, Ukraine’s long-term goal—to convey this reality to Russians across the country—is beginning to succeed,” he noted.
“All of this means that he may ultimately come to accept what has been obvious for some time—that Russia stands to gain more from a frozen conflict than from continued hostilities, if current trends persist,” the expert added.
Three Conditions for the Kremlin’s Surrender
Ben Godges emphasizes that the war has finally come “home” to the Russians, and the situation for the Kremlin will only worsen this summer. However, for the Russian war machine to completely collapse by the end of the year, three key conditions must be met:
Ukraine’s ability to consistently maintain and increase the current pace of long-range strikes.
Uninterrupted and large-scale technological support for this process from Western partners.
Russia’s inability to find an effective countermeasure and protect its rear facilities from Ukrainian drones.
An additional risk factor for Putin is the possible forced mobilization of young people from Moscow and St. Petersburg. If the war affects the privileged segments of the population, public support for the dictator within the country will collapse instantly.
The “meat grinder” tactic and the reality on the front lines
While Russia’s rear is plunged into fuel chaos, the Russian army continues to suffer catastrophic losses on the front lines. According to expert estimates, since 2022, the number of occupiers killed and wounded has exceeded one million (of whom at least 500,000 are irretrievable losses). Statistics on direct combat show a staggering ratio: for every eight Russians killed, there is only one Ukrainian defender.
Former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram notes that the technological evolution of Ukraine’s defense industry has made it possible to compensate for the enemy’s numerical superiority. Due to the poor quality of training for new recruits—who are thrown into the trenches after just a few days of instruction—the average lifespan of a Russian soldier on the battlefield currently ranges from 20 minutes during assaults to a maximum of several weeks overall.
“It took Ukraine a long time to develop the technology, expand production capacity, and increase the number of drones produced. These efforts are beginning to pay off, as Vladimir Putin himself has acknowledged the difficulties that Ukrainian drone attacks are causing for fuel supplies across Russia,” the expert noted.
Under these circumstances, Putin’s inner circle may soon persuade him to acknowledge the obvious: the continuation of hostilities is destroying Russia itself, and a way out of the conflict is the only way to preserve what remains of the state.