Die Zeit: Lukashenko Has Fallen Into A Trap
- 11.07.2026, 8:38
The dictator is critically weak.
Kyiv has radically changed its strategy for containing its northern neighbor, shifting from diplomatic containment to tough ultimatums. Lukashenko is trying to avoid direct involvement in the war against Ukraine amid unprecedented pressure from Russia. The threat of total destruction of Belarus’s critical infrastructure by Kyiv is forcing the dictator to carefully maneuver between the Kremlin’s harsh demands and his own security.
This is reported by Die Zeit.
A Shift in Rhetoric and External Pressure
The authors of the article note that when Lukashenko begins to constantly repeat the same phrase, one should be as cautious as possible, since the exact opposite may turn out to be true. In recent weeks, he has persistently reiterated the claim that he will not allow Belarus to be dragged into the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Lukashenko made this statement to graduates of the officer training school in Minsk, promising not to send them “into this slaughter.” Similar assurances regarding his aversion to war were made during a meeting with the Russian ambassador, in an extensive interview with the Arab television channel Al Arabiya, and at several public press conferences in June.
Despite these peace-loving statements, European governments and Ukraine continue to monitor the situation in Belarus with serious concern. Several European officials have reported steadily increasing pressure from Russia on the Belarusian leader to compel him to participate more actively in the military campaign against Ukraine.
Sensing this tension, French President Emmanuel Macron even called Minsk to personally warn of the catastrophic consequences of a possible entry into the war. After that, Alexander Lukashenko spent two full days in seclusion with Vladimir Putin at his remote residence in Valdai, from where he flew to China without comment.
The Balance of Power and Belarus’s Role
Alexander Lukashenko, who has held onto power for 31 years through cunning and force, found himself in an extremely difficult situation. In the early years of the armed conflict, he felt quite comfortable in the role of an assistant, allowing Russian troops to pass through his territory to launch an offensive on Kyiv in February 2022. Belarusian companies have consistently supplied weapons and components to the Russian military-industrial complex, and more recently have also begun selling gasoline to Russia, a commodity in short supply due to attacks on oil refineries.
However, the country is not currently directly involved in combat operations: no Russian fighter jets or drones take off from its territory. The Russian military uses only local TV towers and repeaters to better navigate its drones during long-range attacks.
However, the situation on the front lines is changing, and this is making the Belarusian dictator’s position increasingly uncomfortable. Despite colossal losses, the advance of Russian troops remains minimal, while Ukrainian long-range drones are inflicting enormous damage deep behind Russian lines. Under such conditions, opening a second front or even creating a visible threat from the north would force the Ukrainian command to redeploy significant forces to defend the border, thereby weakening its positions in the Donbas.
Ukraine’s New Strategy of Deterrence
Against the backdrop of these events, the Ukrainian leadership has radically changed its approach to its neighbor, abandoning a policy of neutral restraint in favor of tough deterrence. In the early years of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to avoid any provocations, as a second front in the north was not in the state’s interest. For years, he ignored attempts at contact from the Belarusian opposition, most of whom were in exile following the brutal crackdown on protests in 2020.
However, after the front line stabilized and Ukraine began mass-producing its own long-range drones, the balance of power between the two leaders shifted significantly in favor of the Ukrainian president. In late May, Zelenskyy publicly warned that there were 500 designated targets on Belarusian territory in the event of its intervention. This list included:
critical infrastructure facilities;
industrial enterprises;
military bases and strongholds
Kyiv’s rhetoric continues to intensify, as Zelenskyy seeks not only to prevent an attack but also to oust Alexander Lukashenko from his role as a Russian ally. In late June, the Ukrainian president issued a harsh ultimatum, demanding that Minsk remove signal boosters from the border zone that allow Russian drones to terrorize Ukrainian civilians. In the event of a refusal, Kyiv threatened to resolve the issue on its own.
Moreover, in his video address, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine is aware of all Belarusian factories supplying Russia with components for armored vehicles, missile systems, and fuel for waging war. All these actions, according to the Ukrainian leader, automatically drag Belarus into the war.
The Vulnerability of a Dictatorship and Its Consequences
Just a year ago, such harsh statements from Kyiv seemed impossible due to the Ukrainian army’s extremely dire situation. At that time, Lukashenko felt completely secure with Putin’s backing and allowed himself to call the Ukrainian president a “louse” and a “drug addict.” Now, however, the Belarusian leader is forced to navigate between a weakened Kremlin dictator and an increasingly self-assured Ukrainian president.
He has chosen a cautious “middle ground”—refraining from verbal escalation and unexpectedly acknowledging his country’s extreme vulnerability. In an interview with Al Arabiya, he stated that his country lies “right on a platter” before the Ukrainian military, so Kyiv has nothing to fear. And although there was no official public reaction to the ultimatum regarding the signal repeaters, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi recently reported that of the four signal repeaters, only one remains operational.
Minsk has completely delegated the task of publicly expressing outrage toward Ukraine to its Russian partners. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the Ukrainian threats brazen and shameless, while Putin’s spokesperson expressed confidence in Belarus’s ability to defend itself independently against “utterly aggressive gestures.” However, the reality is that Belarus actually has no effective means of defending itself against Ukrainian medium- and long-range strike drones, and Moscow understands this perfectly well.
This critical weakness could be the decisive factor that prevents Putin from forcing his ally to enter the war. After all, an entire country with intact oil refineries and a stable supply of weapons would be of far greater use to the Russian dictator than a devastated ally that would itself be in need of urgent military protection, the authors of the article conclude.