War Has Come To Putin's Doorstep
- 12.07.2026, 10:24
Many Russians began to feel the effects of the war for the first time.
The Ukrainian campaign strikes on Russian oil refineries is having an increasingly noticeable impact on the situation within Russia, causing fuel shortages in various regions of the country. This was reported by Fox News.
Russian blogger Maksim Kats said in an interview with the TV channel that many Russians are beginning to feel the effects of the war in their daily lives for the first time.
“This is the first time that people in Russia are seeing the war’s impact not only on fuel prices but also on its availability. Gasoline is becoming hard to buy, and this is a very important factor for the country,” he noted.
According to Kats, the fuel crisis is undermining the Kremlin’s attempts to portray the war as an event that does not affect the lives of most citizens, especially on the eve of the State Duma elections.
“Putin tried to convince Russians that life in Moscow would continue as usual and that the war would remain somewhere far away. But when its consequences come home, the situation changes,” he emphasized.
At the same time, Katz believes that the Russian authorities will continue to prioritize supplying the army with fuel, even if the civilian population faces shortages.
“There will be fuel for the tanks. The question is whether the Kremlin will be able to maintain control over the situation within the country,” he said.
The Supreme Allied Commander Europe Philip M. Breedlove also believes that Ukrainian strikes are already having a tangible impact on Russia.
According to him, attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have led to a significant reduction in fuel production—by nearly a third, according to some estimates. In addition, Moscow has had to redeploy additional air defense forces to protect strategic facilities, which reduces the capabilities of Russian troops on the front lines.
At the same time, experts note that the potential of this strategy is limited. Russia continues to generate significant revenue from energy exports, primarily liquefied natural gas.
As Fox News reports, citing a study by the German environmental organization Urgewald, from January through May 2026, European Union countries received 114 out of 118 shipments of LNG sent from the “Yamal LNG” project. The total volume of shipments amounted to 8.37 million metric tons, with an estimated value of approximately $5.7 billion.
According to Urgewald representative Alexander Kirk, EU countries’ payments for Russian LNG supplies under the “Yamal LNG” project could approach $7 billion in the first half of 2026.
Despite this, analysts note that Ukrainian strikes have already placed a serious strain on Russia’s fuel system and complicated the Kremlin’s attempts to shield the population from the consequences of the war. According to Fox News, the main question now is not whether Ukraine is capable of damaging Russia’s economic foundation, but rather how much pressure the Russian economy and political system can withstand.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that gasoline production in Russia has fallen to a level that covers only about 65% of seasonal demand. According to the agency, the current fuel shortage is estimated at 40,000–45,000 metric tons per day, which is approximately 35% of the required volume. By comparison, in June this figure stood at about 25%.
For its part, the Financial Times estimates that the gasoline shortage is already directly affecting about 50 million Russians—roughly 35% of the country’s population.