The Dollar Has Reversed Course
- 13.07.2026, 9:22
What exchange rates can we expect in the second half of July?
Last week, the trend toward a strengthening of the national currency returned to the Belarusian foreign exchange market. In his regular review, financial analyst myfin.by Mikhail Grachev.
Decline of the Dollar
The U.S. dollar exchange rate fell by -1.22% over the week; since the start of the current year, the ruble has strengthened against the U.S. dollar by 1.14%. Trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange closed on Friday, July 10, at USD/BYN 2.8696. Trading volume for the past week amounted to 93.366 million rubles, which is generally higher than the average for the current year.
Similarly, over the past week, the Russian ruble strengthened its position on the Belarusian foreign exchange market to RUB/BYN 3.7668 per 100 Russian rubles on Thursday, July 9, but by the end of the week, it had corrected to 3.7442 per 100 Russian rubles. Overall, the Russian currency strengthened by +0.42% over the past week; since the beginning of the year, the ruble has appreciated by 1.12%. The trading volume of the ruble over the past week amounted to 15,039.480 million rubles, which is slightly below the average for the current year.
On the Russian financial market, the U.S. dollar exchange rate fell to USD/RUB 75.85 but returned to USD/RUB 77.15 by the end of the week. These fluctuations were driven by a nascent rise in oil prices, which resumed their upward trend following the resumption of the Middle East conflict.
The Middle East is driving up oil prices
The U.S. and Iran resumed active hostilities after a month-long lull in June 2026. Against this backdrop, the price of Brent crude returned to a range above 78.00 USD/br, while Russian Urals crude is trading just above 55.2 USD/br, with a sanctions cap of 60.0 USD/br. Since the end of the conflict has once again been postponed indefinitely, there is a possibility that the price of “black gold” may continue to rise for some time, which will undoubtedly provide support to the Russian financial market.
In addition, July will see increased payments of the additional income tax on oil producers (NDD) in the Russian market, which will also boost demand for ruble liquidity. And the main factor supporting the ruble—the Bank of Russia’s high key rate—also remains in effect.
Thus, the combination of supportive factors once again outweighs demand for foreign currency, which has yet to materialize on the Russian market.
The global financial market is in the midst of a summer sideways trading range. The exchange rate of the major currency pair has stalled near EUR/USD 1.1410, while the price of a futures contract for an ounce of gold is trading within a narrow range of 4,100–4,200 USD/oz. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is 4.450% per annum.
Weekly Forecast
The next Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting will take place at the end of the month on July 28–29, and although the market does not expect an interest rate change in either direction, the regulator is likely to adopt a more hawkish tone, which is already causing tension in global financial markets. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation report, after which the dollar exchange rate on the over-the-counter Forex market may break out of its current trading range.
Given the above, at the start of this week, the Belarusian currency market is expected to see a moderate decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate to USD/BYN 2.720. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble is strengthening slightly.