"Lukashenko Lives In Fear And Talks About The Same Thing All The Time"
- 14.07.2026, 7:40
The dictator fears for his life.
Analyst Sergey Chaly spoke about the relationship between Putin and Lukashenko.
— By all accounts, the relationship between Lukashenko and Putin aren’t very good right now—neither of them wanted to say what they were doing in Valdai for two days, — Chaly says in an interview with DW. Belarus.
It’s quite possible, the analyst suggests, that Lukashenko’s part of the conversation went something like this:
— “Look, Volodya,” he said, “a war that’s going this way is hurting not only your economy, but mine too. And the longer it goes on, the worse it gets. We need to do something about this.
This latest meeting differs from previous ones in that, in the past, Putin and Lukashenko would jointly voice Lukashenko’s arguments, such as: “We can’t go to war—we can’t do anything,” and “You don’t want us to go to war and end up with 1,500 kilometers of new front lines, do you?”
In this case, they didn’t make any statements. Anyway, I don’t know what they did to him (Lukashenko—ed.), maybe they tortured him in some way, so that he was later forced to fly to Uncle Xi (Xi Jinping—ed.).
He wasn’t just flying to his son’s graduation. We know that, according to American diplomats, Xi Jinping regularly answered “no” when Putin asked whether an escalation of the conflict through the use of nuclear weapons was possible.
Now Putin is considering the option of escalating the conflict because the current approach isn’t working. And any escalation scenario implies Belarus’s involvement: it would be either the use of tactical nuclear weapons, a conventional war involving ground forces and military equipment, or a hybrid war against NATO countries.
Any scenario, in my view, involves Belarus. And most likely, that’s what was being discussed, and that’s what the main disputes are centered around. It’s not yet clear how Lukashenko is holding up.
At the same time, Chaly believes that Lukashenko is not trying to distance himself from Russia.
He regularly likes to play his old tune when things aren’t going well for him—saying, “Save me from the evil Putin,” “I need to be separated from him immediately”—even though he’s the one who’s stuck to Putin in the first place.
— But, let me remind you, our entire economy is geared toward Russia. Everything that’s sold in any significant quantity is sold either to Russia or through Russia. There are no other options.
Basically, when Lukashenko speaks out about this war, he doesn’t condemn it; instead, he says we don’t need it and it would be good to end it—but by “end it,” he actually means a completely Russian-led conclusion to the war. In other words, it will end only when Ukraine surrenders.
At the same time, if Lukashenko sees that Zelenskyy is winning, he will lead an anti-Putin coalition, Chaly believes.
According to the analyst, a weakening Moscow is both good and bad for Lukashenko.
“Economically, Russia’s weakening is completely to his disadvantage, but politically—yes, because it will give him a chance to get off this hook.” The thing is, we’re currently facing a situation where there are no good ways out.
No matter how the situation unfolds, it will only get worse for Lukashenko. This is the natural consequence of the fact that he once walked through the wrong door.
But right now, it’s the security forces who fear an escalation the most, adds Sergey Chaly.
— Notice who urged Belarusians not to travel to Russia because it’s unsafe. Security Council Chairman Volfovich. The man tasked with overseeing a comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian army.
I think he harbors no illusions about the Belarusian army’s combat readiness. That’s why all security officials fear an escalation and any involvement in a war even more than Lukashenko, who fears for himself.
But it is absolutely certain that Lukashenko is currently living in a state of fear—and physical fear at that. Because if we look at his statements, they’re all about the need to hide.