China Has Refused To Help The Kremlin
- 17.07.2026, 15:29
Beijing will not build ships for the Northern Sea Route.
China has de facto joined Western sanctions on the supply of technology to Russia for Arctic-class vessels capable of navigating the Northern Sea Route, according to a presentation by the Central Research Institute of the Navy (CNIIMF).
According to a document cited by "Vedomosti", Chinese options for propulsion and steering systems for large-tonnage ice-class vessels are possible only "provided that sanctions pressure is eased." At the same time, there are currently no Russian power plants available for such vessels.
According to estimates by the Central Research Institute of Marine Engineering (TsNIIMF), Russian companies will need at least 10 oil tankers by 2030; with a deadweight of 120,000 metric tons), at least five LNG carriers (174,000 cubic meters), three multipurpose dry cargo ships of 40,000 metric tons each, as well as two gas condensate tankers and three liquefied hydrocarbon gas (LHG) tankers. All of them must comply with the highest ice class, Arc7—that is, be capable of operating year-round in the Arctic.
However, Russian shipyards virtually never build large-tonnage ice-class vessels, Alexander Buyanov, deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Marine Engineering (TsNIIMF), told Vedomosti. The problem, he said, lies not only in the shipyards’ capacity but also in the lack of necessary equipment: Russian equipment is unavailable, Western equipment is subject to sanctions, and Chinese equipment is tied to sanctions restrictions.
Back in 2018, at the start of his fourth term, President Vladimir Putin set an ambitious goal of transforming the Northern Sea Route into a bustling trade artery, which stretches from the Kara Gate Strait to the Bering Strait and crosses five Arctic seas over a distance of 5,600 km, writes The Moscow Times.
Under Putin’s plan, cargo volumes along the Northern Sea Route—from Asia to Europe and back—were supposed to reach 80 million metric tons annually by 2024 and 200 million metric tons by 2030. In reality, 37.9 million metric tons were transported in 2024, and last year the figure was even lower: 37.02 million metric tons.
In September 2024, Rosatom nearly halved its forecast for shipments via the Northern Sea Route—to 117 million metric tons by 2030. Last year, Putin announced a new estimate—another 15–40% lower. “We are confident that by 2030, this (cargo volume via the Northern Sea Route—TMT) will be 70–100 million metric tons,” the president said.
Although the Northern Sea Route reduces the voyage time from Europe to Asia by 7–10 days compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal, finding companies willing to ship cargo through the Russian Arctic has proven difficult. In 2025, Russian exports accounted for the bulk of the Northern Sea Route’s cargo volume (60%, or 22.2 million metric tons), according to estimates by the Gekon Center. LNG, oil, and gas condensate accounted for 83% of this volume. Shipments originated from the Yamal LNG, NOVATEK, Arctic LNG-2, and Gazprom Neft’s Novoportovskoye field projects.