The Gasoline Shortage In Russia Could Last For Months
- 2.07.2026, 20:19
The crisis is just beginning.
The fuel crisis, which is gaining momentum and has spread to nearly all Russian regions—including more than 40 where official restrictions on gasoline sales have been imposed—is likely to become the largest in the country’s modern history.
It will most likely not be possible to increase the capacity utilization of Russian oil refineries affected by drone strikes in the coming month, a source in the oil industry told “Kommersant” a source in the oil industry. According to the source, refining volumes this month will, “at best,” remain at June levels—and that is assuming there are no new attacks on refineries.
According to Energy Intelligence estimates, oil refining volumes in Russia plummeted by 25% year-over-year in June—to 3.91 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than 20 years. Gasoline production fell by 17% year-over-year—to 850,000 barrels per day—which is significantly below domestic market demand.
Refinery downtime has reached “extraordinary” levels, Energy Intelligence analyst Liam Peach told the Associated Press: Since March, UAVs have attacked Russian oil industry facilities at least 50 times, with some refineries targeted multiple times. The Moscow refinery was hit twice, “Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez” twice, and Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery set the record, having been attacked seven times.
“The most alarming thing is that the crisis is only just beginning,” notes Yaroslav Kabakov, a strategist at Finam. “Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August–September, but signs of a shortage and accelerating prices appeared as early as June.” Gasoline, now in short supply, is rapidly becoming more expensive: by the end of June, the year-over-year increase in retail fuel prices had reached 20%—a record since 2010.
At private gas stations not affiliated with major oil companies, a liter of gasoline sells for 120 or even 140 rubles. In Crimea and Sevastopol, which have become the epicenter of the gasoline crisis, prices have reached 200 rubles per liter.
Currently, about one-third of Russia’s oil refining capacity is idle, says Chris Weifer, head of the consulting firm Macro-Advisory. “This is happening at a critical time for the Russian economy, as the harvest season begins,” he emphasizes.
To alleviate the gasoline crisis, Russia—the world’s second-largest oil exporter—has decided to take a step that was previously unthinkable: importing gasoline by sea. According to Reuters, purchases of Indian gasoline have begun, and the first shipments—about 60,000 metric tons—will arrive at one of the ports in the near future. In addition, Kazakhstan has agreed to supply 50,000 metric tons of gasoline as part of humanitarian aid.
For Russia, this is helpful but not particularly significant support, notes Freedom Finance analyst Vladimir Chernov: “If we take summer consumption at around 110,000 metric tons of gasoline per day, then 50,000 metric tons is less than half of a single day’s demand nationwide. Even accounting for the current gap between production and consumption, this volume would be enough to cover roughly a couple of days of the shortage.” Therefore, Kazakhstan can fill the most acute shortfalls in certain regions, but cannot fully replace the normal operations of Russian refineries, Chernov emphasizes.
Long lines at gas stations are causing growing discontent among people already suffering from inflation, internet restrictions, and dashed hopes for a swift end to the war. “It’s clear that there is a social crisis related to fuel, and it could escalate into a political one, although there haven’t been any serious consequences yet,” notes political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov. “This intensifies a sense of fatigue that is turning into irritation. But since people lack the means to change the situation, all they can do is grumble about the government and the fact that the war isn’t ending,” says Kolesnikov.