Alexey Melnik: Tensions In Russia Are Gradually Mounting
- 20.07.2026, 19:01
The Russians' discontent over the attacks on Moscow could spiral out of the Kremlin's control.
The Russian capital and the Moscow region were hit by a series of drone attacks. The drones struck large Wildberries warehouses and other logistics facilities, and huge plumes of smoke were visible from various parts of Moscow.
What consequences has the destruction of such facilities already had for the Russian economy and the Kremlin’s ability to continue the war? The website Charter97.org asked military expert Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, for his comments:
— There’s an important point to note here. It’s the economic consequences. If we assess the damage caused by the first attack on the Wildberries warehouses, it amounts to roughly one billion dollars. This is an estimate of the value of the warehouses themselves and the goods stored in them.
What does one billion dollars mean for Russia? That’s equivalent to two or three days of war as of today, and it’s a substantial amount.
It’s also important to understand who lost this money. For Wildberries itself, this represents about 7% of its warehouse space. 7% has been destroyed, 93% is still operational—so it’s not a critical blow. Today’s strike—though I haven’t seen any estimates yet—could add another 7% or so. At some point, this could become critical for a leading company like Wildberries.
The second group that has suffered losses consists of small and medium-sized business owners in Russia. For them, this blow is very painful. Many of them—and there is video evidence of this—practically woke up this morning to find themselves bankrupt.
They will receive no compensation from the government. What Wildberries is currently is being considered by Wildberries to preserve its image is not immediate compensation, but rather certain benefits and loans. This is unlikely to save their customers or their business.
On a national scale, this amounts to just three days of war—though even that is a great deal. Each day of war equals the budget of one of the smaller regions. In the big picture, that’s not much. But if you break it down into its components—especially when it comes to small and medium-sized businesses—the consequences are catastrophic for many.
That’s the economic side of things. But, in my view, the psychological impact is far more significant. They say that Ukrainian drones are getting through unimpeded. That’s probably a huge exaggeration. Because out of 400 drones, at best, only about 10 percent actually reach their target. This is in no way comparable to Russia’s capabilities, given that just a day ago, a ballistic missile struck Kyiv practically every minute for 40 minutes: 40 minutes—40 ballistic missiles. Of those, the interception rate was no more than 20%.
In terms of military capabilities, Russia still retains this advantage. The difference is that Russia is able to hit its targets virtually unimpeded. The damage from this destruction and the casualties are enormous. But the effect on Ukrainian society—which, over these five years of war, hasn’t exactly gotten used to it but has somehow adapted—is different.
Each time, this strike is painful for Ukrainians, but it doesn’t have any kind of turning-point effect. All of this has happened before; all of this is happening now. And, psychologically, we are somewhat prepared for this to continue.
For Russians, the moment of truth has now arrived—or is about to arrive. The war has firmly and permanently reached Moscow. One cannot compare this psychological effect and its impact on Ukrainian society with that on the Russian population.
— More and more videos are appearing on Russian social media in which people express outrage at the authorities’ inability to protect even Moscow and accuse Putin of being helpless in the face of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What could this growing discontent among ordinary Russians lead to?
— Right now, there are no signs of any organized protest in Russia. The opposition—even the so-called “system liberals”—is merely a facade; there is no real opposition there. It has been destroyed as a class.
Even the so-called “system opposition” remains silent. One Communist lawmaker spoke out, but then fell silent. There’s no follow-up. A certain military blogger jumped the gun, starting to criticize Putin. How did that end? A mental hospital for him, and prison for other Z-bloggers.
The repressive system is holding its ground, and for now, organizing protests is impossible. In other words, there are no protest organizers there. There are no people who could organize any mass rallies, put forward a political platform, and so on.
What does exist is a buildup of discontent. Moreover, as we can see, the calculation that many in Ukraine—and perhaps in the West as well—made at the start of the war turned out to be wrong. They had assumed that the stream of zinc coffins would have some impact on public perception of the war. But now that it has affected everyday inconveniences and gasoline prices, the situation is changing. In addition to businesses, ordinary citizens have also suffered—those who ordered something cheap on an online marketplace and never received it.
And so this pressure cooker, with its lid tightly sealed, is gradually building up pressure. We cannot rule out—as has happened repeatedly in Russian history, if we recall the famous battleship *Potemkin*, when the sailors were eating borscht and nothing foreshadowed trouble—
This spontaneous, merciless explosion could happen at any moment and in any place. And then the Russian authorities will face yet another test. Will they be able to quell and contain this protest, or will it have an avalanche effect and spiral out of control?