Lukashenko's "umbrella" Is Leaking
- 23.07.2026, 8:25
There are no more maneuvers in Minsk.
Russia and Ukraine are heading toward military escalation. This situation is quite uncomfortable for the official Minsk, as the military escalation could affect Belarus. However, the current regime has no strategy for distancing itself from the conflict and is counting on “a stroke of luck,” writes political commentator Valery Karbalevich in an article for "Radye Svaboda".
A year ago, the Kremlin could have “sold” this victory
On the night of July 18–19, the largest missile strike on Kyiv took place. In turn, the Ukrainian military, using drones, is launching new strikes against strategic targets in Russia. The Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine is escalating with increasing intensity, with both sides fueling the conflict. And with every new strike, the prospects for peace grow dimmer.
The problem is that neither Moscow nor Kyiv can compromise for political reasons. In this regard, the situation is worse than it was a year ago, when U.S. President Donald Trump tried to bring the conflicting parties to the negotiating table.
In principle, Vladimir Putin could have heeded America’s calls back then and halted hostilities along the front lines as they stood at the time. The Kremlin could have “sold” the interim results as its own victory. As they say, we’ve seized and annexed new territories with Russian-speaking populations, opened a land corridor to Crimea, and NATO was unable to stop us. So we’ve won.
Today, for Putin, peace with Ukraine is tantamount to defeat
But now the situation has changed dramatically. Over the past six months, Russia has faced serious problems. Apathy reigns on the battlefield, along with recruitment difficulties and a large budget deficit. However, the main problem lies elsewhere. The war has fully penetrated Russia; it has affected people’s way of life and has become part of the average citizen’s consciousness. It could no longer be hidden behind the mask of “special military operations.”
First, there were internet outages, which the authorities themselves attributed to military operations. Ukrainian drones began flying across the European part of the Russian Federation, reaching as far as Moscow and St. Petersburg. Strikes on oil refineries triggered an acute fuel crisis, leading to gasoline shortages and long lines at gas stations.
A particular crisis is unfolding around Crimea. The peninsula is effectively under a partial blockade, and the fuel crisis is leading to shortages of electricity, food, and other essentials. For Russia, Crimea is not just a territory annexed by force. It is a political symbol.
The seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the beginning of the Putin regime’s political “bronze casting.” The infamous “Crimean Consensus” became the ideological foundation of Russian imperial grandeur, upon which support for the war among the Russian population now rests.
And now it turns out that this acquisition of a symbol of honor is turning into an “Achilles’ heel” right before our eyes. In such a situation, Putin cannot declare victory. At this point, the end of the war and the conclusion of peace would be perceived as a defeat by both the public and the elite.
At a time when people are lining up for gasoline across the country and fleeing Crimea, any compromise or reconciliation will be seen as Russia being forced to end the war. And no amount of propaganda will be able to change that perception. Putin understands this very well. For him, ending the war now would be a political disaster. Therefore, the Kremlin dictator has no choice but to continue the war and wait for a more favorable moment.
Ukraine is acting from a position of strength
On the other hand, Ukraine has sensed its own strength, makes no secret of it, and is trying to take advantage of the new circumstances. Kyiv has become bolder on the international stage. This is evidenced by conflicts with Hungary (during the rule of Viktor Orbán), Slovakia, and Poland; the psychological offensive against Belarus; and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open trolling of Vladimir Putin. Even Donald Trump has effectively acknowledged that Ukraine holds “cards” and has begun to pay closer attention to Kyiv’s position.
The Ukrainian president was so confident that, according to political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov, he is ready to hold elections in the fall to capitalize on the “dividends of a relative victory.” This may be linked to the change in the country’s government. In such a situation, Kyiv has no reason to make concessions or seek compromises. Thus, the positions of both sides are pushing them toward military escalation.
“A Leaky Umbrella”
How will this affect Belarus? This situation is extremely unpleasant for the official Minsk, even more so than at the start of the war, for a number of reasons. First and foremost, numerous problems are arising in relations with Russia. For Alexander Lukashenko, the alliance with the Kremlin was the optimal path to political survival. Of course, heavy dependence on Russia has its drawbacks. Moscow used Belarusian territory in 2022 to attack Ukraine, without giving much consideration to the interests of Belarus itself or the regime in power there.
On the other hand, however, Russia has extended a military umbrella over Belarus. It was announced that Russian nuclear weapons and “Oreshnik” missiles would be deployed there. Lukashenko viewed this as a guarantee of his security. As he once said, “A country with nuclear weapons will not be bombed.”
And now it turns out that the Russian umbrella is leaking; Russia cannot save itself and is unable to protect its own territory from Ukrainian drones. Today, from a military standpoint, the Russian Federation is not so much a guarantee of security for Belarus as it is a problem.
Escalation of the conflict via Belarus?
Second point. To extricate himself from the situation in which the Kremlin finds itself, Putin will seek to escalate the war in various ways. As Belarusian analyst Sergei Chaly noted in an interview with DW. Belarus, “any scenario of escalation involves Belarus: it would be either the use of tactical nuclear weapons, a war involving ground troops and military equipment, or a hybrid war with NATO countries.”
One can debate how justified such a panic-stricken approach is, but the threat of Belarus being used more actively for Russia’s military purposes remains high. However, this is completely contrary to Lukashenko’s interests. After all, getting involved in a war that clearly does not serve Russia’s interests—at a time when Putin’s regime itself may be on the brink of a crisis—would be political suicide for the current Belarusian regime.
Finally, Ukraine is now acting from a position of strength. The attack on it from Belarusian territory in 2022 went unpunished for the current regime, but that will not happen again. Lukashenko himself has acknowledged that Belarusian territory is now vulnerable to Ukrainian drones.
Lukashenko’s Tactics
Does Lukashenko recognize these threats, or does he understand that over the past year the situation has changed significantly from a strategic standpoint—and not in his favor? It seems so. Another point is that he sees no way out. The conciliatory rhetoric, which has become more frequent lately, is likely aimed solely at a domestic audience. The recent closed-door talks between Lukashenko and Putin in Valdai, as one might assume, point to growing tensions between the allies.
Will China come to its rescue, given that its leader, Xi Jinping, has declared his support for Belarus’s sovereignty and territorial integrity? Beijing is hardly ready to go to war with Belarus’s neighbors to defend Lukashenko’s regime. Recall how cautiously China behaved during the Belarusian-Polish border conflict 1–2 years ago.
And there’s no room for maneuver left in Minsk. In the past, when Lukashenko found himself in a tight spot, he would begin releasing political prisoners and talk about a multi-vector policy. But now such tactics are not an option for him. After all, liberalization poses no less of a threat to the regime than an escalation of the war. Therefore, the entire logic of survival is based on hope: what if this all blows over? Maybe it will just resolve itself somehow?