Consequences On The Horizon
- 28.07.2026, 13:46
The admissions campaign for medical universities in Belarus has become the subject of heated debate.
The authorities attributed the decline in competition and admission scores in 2026 to a sharp expansion of overall state-funded enrollment. Access to free medical education has increased, but this has been accompanied by a systemic lowering of the minimum academic selection threshold. And by an increase in the disparity in students’ prior educational backgrounds, which could seriously affect the training of medical professionals and the quality of medical care. “White Coats” has published an analysis of trends in admissions campaigns at Belarusian medical universities by Vladimir Pikiren, Ph.D. in Medical Sciences , writes planbmedia.io.
What a High School Graduate Wants
The potential pool of applicants to medical universities is determined primarily by the number of 11th-grade graduates, their academic preparation, and their interest in the relevant entrance exam subjects. Therefore, the author initially analyzed the number of high school graduates and the number of students registered for biology and chemistry exams, as well as the average scores on the standardized tests.
Over the past decade, the number of 11th-grade students has ranged from 58,300 in 2016 to 58,000 in 2026. The highest number was recorded in 2018—59,500. The lowest number—53,100—was recorded in 2021.
The number of students registered for the biology exam peaked in 2017 at 29,600, or 50.4% of all 11th-grade graduates. In subsequent years, this figure declined steadily: to 20,100 in 2021 and 8,100 in 2023. The proportion of registered students relative to the number of graduates during this period decreased from 50.4% to 15%. In 2025, the number of registered students rose to approximately 16,300, or 28.3% of the total number of graduates; however, in 2026, it fell again to 11,900, or 20.5%.
In chemistry, the highest figures were also observed in 2017—16,000 registered students, or 27.2% of the total number of graduates. By 2023, these figures had fallen to 5,600 and 10.3%, respectively. In 2025, the number of students registered for the chemistry exam was about 5,800, or 10.1% of the total number of high school graduates.
In other words, while the number of 11th-grade graduates in 2026 had practically returned to the 2016 level, the number of students registered for the chemistry exam had dropped sharply. A long-term decline was also observed in biology. Consequently, the gradual expansion of admissions occurred alongside a simultaneous decrease in the number of students choosing the specialized subjects required for admission.
Admissions, admissions!
The average scores on the centralized exams for all subjects under consideration increased significantly in 2019. This coincided with a change in the methodology for calculating centralized exam scores. From 2024 to 2026, the average scores in biology and chemistry were predominantly in the range of 56–64 points. The average score in biology decreased from 64.2 in 2024 to 56.4 in 2025. It then rose to 58.9 in 2026. For chemistry, the corresponding scores were 63.8, 56.2, and 56.4 points.
The total number of planned enrollment slots at medical universities from 2016 to 2020 ranged from 2,400 to 2,700. In 2021–2023, it remained close to 3,000, after which it increased to 3,200 in 2024 and remained virtually unchanged in 2025—3,192 spots. Then, in 2026, the enrollment plan rose to 3,700 spots, an increase of 533 spots, or 16.7%, compared to the previous year.
During the period under review, the structure of admissions changed significantly more than its overall volume. From 2016 to 2022, the shares of fee-paying and general state-funded admissions (excluding targeted admissions) mostly ranged from 31% to 44%, while the share of targeted admissions ranged from 17% to 32%. Starting in 2023, the share of quota-based admissions increased rapidly: from 46.9% in 2023 to 55.4% in 2024 and 71.4% in 2025. At the same time, the share of fee-paying admissions decreased from 26.4% to 8.6%, and the share of non-targeted state-funded spots decreased from 26.6% to 20.0%.
In 2026, the admissions structure shifted in the opposite direction. The share of quota-based spots decreased to 58.2%, while the share of state-funded spots allocated through general competition doubled—from 20% to 40.3%. The share of fee-paying spots continued to decline, reaching 1.5%.
It is important to note that in 2026, quota-based admissions were distributed unevenly across specialties. The highest share was in dentistry and medical diagnostics (70% each), while the lowest was in pharmacy (36.5%) and pediatrics (49.9%). In general medicine, it stood at 59.9%. Accordingly, the share of the general state-funded admissions process ranged from 30% of spots in dentistry to 50.1% in pediatrics.
The number of applications to medical universities from 2016 to 2022 ranged from 2,900 to 4,100. The lowest figure was observed in 2022, after which the number of applications increased to 3,800 in 2023, 4,200 in 2025, and 5,200 in 2026. Relative to the number of 11th-grade graduates, the ratio rose from 51.8 applications per 1,000 graduates in 2016 to 89.4 in 2026.
The Chemistry Problem
To assess the potential pool of applicants to medical universities, the researcher selected the number of people registered for the chemistry exam. Chemistry is the most restrictive step in the admissions process, since passing it is required for admission to the main medical specialties, and the number of students registered for this subject during the years analyzed was approximately half the number registered for biology. Therefore, it is the number of students taking the chemistry exam that most significantly limits the number of individuals formally eligible to compete for admission to medical programs.
The ratio of the number of applications to the number of students registered for the chemistry exam has nearly tripled: from 24.5% in 2016 to 68.5% in 2023 and approximately 71.7% in 2025. This growth is due to the divergent trends of two figures: the number of applications increased from 3,000 to 4,200 (2016–2025), while the number of students registered for the chemistry exam decreased from 12.3 to approximately 5.8 thousand. As a result, even at BSU’s Faculty of Chemistry, there was a shortfall in state-funded enrollment for certain majors. For example, only 13 applicants competed for 21 state-funded spots in the research and teaching track.
At the same time, the enrollment capacity of medical universities increased relative to the potential pool of applicants. In 2016, the number of planned spots corresponded to 20.2% of those registered for chemistry; by 2025, this figure had reached 55%. In other words, by the mid-2020s, the number of spots at medical universities had come to account for more than half of the total pool of students registered for the chemistry exam.
The expert notes that the decrease in competition at certain universities and for certain majors in 2026 did not occur against the backdrop of a reduction in the total number of applications. On the contrary, the number of applications increased by 23.8% by 2025, while the total enrollment quota grew by 16.7%.
Therefore, the subsequent decrease in competition and cutoff scores should be viewed primarily in the context of a sharp expansion in overall state-funded enrollment and the redistribution of spots among admission categories.
The competition ratio for targeted enrollment slots was low across the entire available range: 1.43 in 2023, 1.23 in 2024, 1.17 in 2025, and 1.49 in 2026. From 2023 to 2025, it was lower than the competition rate for general state-funded admission. However, in 2026, it exceeded it for the first time (1.49 versus 1.34).
Admission Score
At BSMU, the cutoff scores for the three specialties under consideration remained high throughout most of the period. The highest scores were typically observed in dentistry: ranging from 368 points in 2016 to 395 points in 2023. For general medicine, the cutoff score ranged from 347 to 386 points between 2016 and 2025, while for pediatrics, it ranged from 322 to 368 points. In 2026, the cutoff scores decreased for all three specialties: to 332 points for general medicine, 319 for pediatrics, and 388 for dentistry.
The most comprehensive data on the admissions competition at BSMU is available starting in 2023. From 2023 to 2025, there were 1.49–1.85 applications per spot in the general state-funded program for general medicine, 1.81–2.18 for pediatrics, and 1.70–2.61 for dentistry. Then, in 2026, the competition rate dropped to 1.14 applications per spot in general medicine, 1.65 in pediatrics, and 1.13 in dentistry.
At Vitebsk State Medical University, the cutoff scores were lower than those at Belarusian State Medical University in most years, especially for general medicine and pediatrics. From 2022 to 2025, the cutoff score for general medicine rose from 315 to 360, and for pediatrics, from 299 to 352. But in 2026, both scores dropped sharply: to 269 and 239 points, respectively.
Moreover, at VGMU, the cutoff score for pediatrics was significantly lower than the average—the conditional sum of the average high school diploma grade of 8.5 and the nationwide average entrance exam scores.
Overall, in 2026, the minimum admission threshold approached the theoretical average level of preparation at both universities. A similar trend was observed at Gomel and Grodno Medical Universities. In the general medicine programs at both universities, the minimum admission threshold was practically equal to the expected average, while in the medical-preventive medicine program at Gomel State Medical University and the pediatrics program at Grodno State Medical University, it was lower than that average.
The author of the study notes that there are clearly very different levels of academic preparation, with many students falling below the national average level of knowledge—particularly at regional universities.
“The data obtained suggest a weakening of the lower admission threshold, but do not allow us to determine to what extent the average scores of all admitted students or the proportion of highly qualified applicants have changed. Therefore, with regard to the 2026 admissions cycle, the term ‘failure’ is used here to denote a sharp decline in the threshold for academic selectivity and the associated risk of increased heterogeneity in students’ initial academic preparedness,” notes Vladimir Pikirenya.
Consequences on the Horizon
Thus, the main change in 2026 was a sharp increase in the number of spots in the general state-funded admissions competition, accompanied by a significantly smaller increase in the number of applications. This has expanded access to free medical education while simultaneously reducing competitive pressure and lowering the academic selection threshold.
“The expansion of medical admissions has consequences that extend beyond the medical universities themselves. Given the limited number of students taking chemistry and biology, attracting additional applicants to medical universities reduces the number of candidates available to other programs with the same combination of entrance exams. The training of chemistry and biology teachers becomes particularly vulnerable. In the long term, a shortage of such specialists could worsen the availability and quality of instruction in these core subjects in schools, further narrowing the future pool of qualified applicants,” the author writes.
Another factor reducing the domestic pool of applicants is educational migration. The number of Belarusian students in Poland increased from 2,605 in 2010 to 8,378 in 2019, 9,736 in 2020, and 11,076 in 2022 (a study on the educational emigration of Belarusians). According to more recent estimates, their number reached approximately 12,700 in 2023, which is more than three times the 2013 level (Euro Radio). Russia also remains one of the main destinations for educational migration, and a significant number of Belarusian students are studying in Lithuania, Germany, the Czech Republic, and other European countries (Belsat).
Medical universities have thus attracted a significant share of graduates who have already chosen a chemical and biological educational track. However, the number of applications and the size of the potential pool reflect different stages of career choice. The submission of applications reflects the appeal of medical education among graduates who have prepared in the required subjects. The number of students taking chemistry and biology exams indicates how broad the pool is from which medical universities can select students. In the long term, this pool has shrunk significantly, despite the recovery in the total number of 11th-grade graduates, the study notes.
Therefore, the author concludes that the 2026 results are best explained not by a single factor, but by a combination of short-term and long-term processes. The immediate mechanism behind the decline in competition was a more than twofold increase in total state-funded enrollment. This was set against the backdrop of a long-term decline in the pool of students specializing in chemistry and biology, partly due to students choosing other educational paths and studying abroad.
Just not a doctor!
It is also important to analyze why fewer and fewer high school seniors are choosing the chemistry-biology track. One of the most obvious factors is considered to be the changing ratio between the duration and complexity of medical training and the expected professional return.
Medical school takes at least six years, followed by an internship, mandatory assigned work, and, for some specialties, additional postgraduate training. At the same time, the incomes of healthcare workers in Belarus remain significantly lower than in neighboring EU countries. According to independent comparisons, in 2025, the salaries of Belarusian doctors, when converted to euros, were several times lower than in Poland and the Baltic states (“A Brief Independent Analysis of the State of the Belarusian Healthcare System”; “White Coats”).
In 2025, the average gross salary of a doctor in Belarus was 4,006.5 rubles, or approximately 1,160 euros at the official average exchange rate. By comparison, in Poland, as of July 2025, the statutory minimum base salary was 9,736.25 zloty, or about 2,280 euros, for a doctor without a specialty and 11,863.49 zlotys, or about 2,780 euros, for a specialist. Thus, even the minimum base salary for a doctor in Poland was approximately 2.0–2.4 times higher than the average gross salary of a doctor in Belarus.
The second factor cited is the restriction on the professional and territorial autonomy of young specialists. For graduates who studied under a targeted contract, the mandatory service period is five years. Moreover, the specific location is determined based on the needs of the healthcare system at the time of graduation. By 2026, for a significant portion of applicants, a medical education had effectively become tied to a long period of mandatory service at a state-designated organization.
Periodic proposals to extend the duration of mandatory service create additional uncertainty.
The political context following 2020 may also have influenced perceptions of the profession. Human rights and professional organizations have reported detentions, administrative and criminal prosecutions, as well as dismissals of healthcare workers for expressing their civic views.
Overall, expanding enrollment may temporarily ensure the necessary number of students. But this alone does not address the reasons why the number of graduates choosing a chemical and biological track early on is declining. If professional conditions and the quality of the educational environment do not improve, any further increase in the number of spots will depend increasingly on lowering admission standards rather than on expanding the pool of qualified candidates.
Expanding enrollment may increase the number of healthcare professionals; however, the number of enrolled students is merely an initial indicator of personnel policy. The outcome depends on what proportion of those admitted will be able and willing to complete their studies, undergo postgraduate training, begin working in their field, and remain in the system after completing their mandatory service period.
It also depends on how many high school students and their parents will choose the chemistry and biology track and pursue a higher education in that field in the coming years—specifically in Belarus.