"The Situation Could Change": Will Russian Oligarchs Revolt?

• 30.07.2026, 10:20

The opinion of the SBU Major General.

Can Russian oligarchs openly speak out against Putin or try to remove him from power? The website Charter97.org posed this question to Major General (ret.) Viktor Yagun of the Security Service of Ukraine Viktor Yagun:

— On their own—practically not. Russian oligarchs have long ceased to be an independent political force. Today, they do not control the state; rather, the state, the intelligence services, and law enforcement agencies control their property, freedom, and personal safety.

An open conflict with Putin almost inevitably means the loss of business, criminal prosecution, emigration, or physical danger. Therefore, a public revolt by the oligarchs is not to be expected.

The situation could change only in the event of a deep rift within Russia’s security and political leadership—for example, following a severe military defeat, a massive budget crisis, or Putin’s apparent loss of control over the apparatus of power.

In that case, individual businessmen might finance one of the rival Kremlin factions, providing it with their connections, information resources, or foreign support. But the initiators of Putin’s possible removal will not be the oligarchs. They could be representatives of the security services, the military, the top bureaucracy, or the dictator’s own inner circle.

Russian big business is capable of joining a palace coup once it becomes clear that Putin is already losing. But it will not be the first to turn against him.