"Lukashenko Had To Swallow It And Keep Quiet"
- 8.07.2026, 12:31
They don't just let you leave the casino that easily.
In an interview with the Financial Times , Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Lukashenko, by aiding the Russian invasion, hoped to “hit the jackpot”, but miscalculated: “He walked into the casino on the wrong day.”
What exactly did the Ukrainian president mean? What was the Belarusian dictator’s main strategic miscalculation? The website Charter97.org asked Maxim Pleshko, a candidate of philosophical sciences and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications , about this:
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy perfectly described the psychology of a political gambler who bet everything on a single number and lost. In February 2022, Lukashenko was absolutely convinced that the Russian army would take Kyiv “in three days,” that Ukraine as a sovereign state would cease to exist, and that he would hit the “jackpot”—a lifelong status as a victor, geopolitical bonuses from the Kremlin, and expanded influence.
His main strategic miscalculation was underestimating the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the protracted nature of the war, which turned Belarus into a cornered accomplice to the aggression. Instead of the dividends of victory, he has received the complete destruction of what remained of his international reputation, total economic dependence on Moscow, and the threat of losing power. Lukashenko is now terrified of a real military response from Ukraine and further escalation. That is precisely why he is pragmatically trying to “back down,” declaring that he will not send Belarusian soldiers into this “bloodbath.” But they don’t let you walk out of a casino that easily—he has become a hostage to his own misguided gamble.
— In recent months, Zelensky has publicly demanded the removal of Russian relay stations used for “Shahed” attacks from Belarusian territory. Then the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that this issue had already been resolved, and later reports emerged about the possible destruction of these facilities. What actually happened to the Russian relay stations in Belarus?
— It was a demonstration of Ukraine’s military strength and technological superiority. After Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly gave Minsk a week to dismantle the four communication towers, the Russian military equipment on them was first hastily shut down. When the Belarusian side attempted to reactivate one of the relay stations, Ukrainian drones struck the facilities. The Belarusian government had to swallow its pride and remain silent.
— Belarusian oil refineries are increasingly increasing fuel supplies to Russia, and gasoline exports have increased tenfold. How should Ukraine respond to these actions by the Lukashenko regime?
— Fuel supplies for the Russian army and the Russian civilian market constitute direct financing and support for aggression. The Belarusian Mozyr and Novopolotsk oil refineries are currently operating as rear-area facilities for Russia’s military-industrial complex. The Lukashenko regime is profiting from the blood of Ukrainians by saving the Kremlin from a fuel crisis.
Ukraine must act comprehensively and uncompromisingly:
1. Belarusian oil refineries must become legitimate targets for sanctions and economic pressure from our Western partners. A full audit is needed, and any shadow schemes for exporting Belarusian petroleum products to the EU under the guise of other goods must be shut down.
2. A stark warning. Minsk must clearly understand: if Belarusian fuel continues to seamlessly power Russian tanks and aircraft that are killing our people, then the Mozyr Oil Refinery, located just a few dozen kilometers from the Ukrainian border, may suddenly suffer the same fate as the Omsk Oil Refinery or the oil depots in the Rostov Region.
The time for backroom deals is over. If Lukashenko has chosen to act as a gas station for Putin’s army, he must share all the military risks with Putin.