"They Won't Let Lukashenko Leave The Casino"

• 9.07.2026, 10:54

The dictator is now terrified of a real military response.

In an interview with the Financial Times , Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Lukashenko, by aiding the Russian invasion, had hoped to “hit the jackpot,” but miscalculated: “He walked into the casino on the wrong day.”

What exactly did the Ukrainian president mean? What was the Belarusian dictator’s main strategic miscalculation? The website Charter97.org asked Maxim Pleshko, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications :

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy perfectly described the psychology of a political gambler who bet everything on a single number and lost. In February 2022, Lukashenko was absolutely convinced that the Russian army would take Kyiv “in three days,” that Ukraine as a sovereign state would cease to exist, and that he would hit the “jackpot”—a lifetime status as a victor, geopolitical bonuses from the Kremlin, and expanded influence.

His main strategic miscalculation was underestimating the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the protracted nature of the war, which turned Belarus into a cornered accomplice to the aggression. Instead of the dividends of victory, he has received the complete destruction of what remained of his international reputation, total economic dependence on Moscow, and the threat of losing power. Lukashenko is now terrified of a real military response from Ukraine and further escalation. That is precisely why he is pragmatically trying to “back down,” declaring that he will not send Belarusian soldiers into this “bloodbath.” But they don’t let you walk out of a casino that easily—he has become a hostage to his own misguided gamble.