What Will Happen To The Dollar Exchange Rate In Belarus In Mid-August?
- 10.08.2026, 9:26
The currency forecast has been published.
The U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian foreign exchange market began to rise last week. Myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
At the close of trading on the Minsk Stock Exchange’s currency section on Friday, August 7, the dollar exchange rate reached USD/BYN 2.9484, falling just short of 2.95. Since the start of the week, the dollar exchange rate has risen by +1.47%, and year-to-date, the increase stands at +1.57%. The volume of dollar trading on the exchange for the week totaled 67.610 million dollars, which is slightly below the annual average. Low demand for the U.S. currency indicates that market participants have adopted a wait-and-see stance for now and are in no hurry to sell their currency in anticipation of a potentially higher exchange rate.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian foreign exchange market fell by -0.92% over the same period; since the beginning of the year, the rate has already declined by -2.06%. At the close of trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange on Friday, August 7, the ruble exchange rate stood at RUB/BYN 3.6294 per 100 Russian rubles. Trading volume, meanwhile, remains at a fairly high level and totaled 25,925.650 million rubles for the week, or approximately 320 million U.S. dollars in equivalent value.
Weakening of the Russian ruble
Overall, over the past week, trends in the Belarusian foreign exchange market were shaped by the weakening of the Russian ruble in the neighboring financial market. There, by the end of last week, the U.S. dollar had risen to 83 rubles, but by market close it had settled at USD/RUB 81.91. It is highly likely that this was precisely how the Russian financial market reacted to the Russian Ministry of Finance’s unexpected decision to increase the volume of foreign currency purchases under the budget rule, effective August 7. Over the course of the month, the Russian budget will purchase 5.9 billion rubles worth of foreign currency daily, compared to 4.8 billion rubles the previous month.
The Ministry of Finance’s decision came as a surprise to market participants, as it had previously been announced that the volume of foreign currency purchases would be reduced amid falling global—and consequently Russian—oil prices. Nevertheless, the price of “black gold” remains above $82 per barrel for Brent crude, while Russian Urals crude is trading above $62 per barrel. Thus, the Russian Ministry of Finance’s decision is justified to some extent and is setting a new trend in the foreign exchange market.
Weekly Forecast
Another significant development in the global financial markets last week was the rise in the price of physical gold to $4,438 per ounce. This refers to the futures contract on the New York COMEX exchange. Since the second half of June, the price of gold had been trading within a narrow range of approximately $3,850–$4,100 per ounce, only to begin rising now. Overall, this is an expected development, especially against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the approaching fall season in Asia, when demand for the metal rises among individual investors.
Overall, the Belarusian foreign exchange market remains quite stable, and the current weakening of the Belarusian ruble against the U.S. dollar and the euro is fully offset by its strengthening against the Russian ruble. As the dollar exchange rate on the Russian market rises to 85 rubles, the price of the “buck” in Belarusian trading will tend toward 3.00 rubles. However, these exchange rates are fully in line with the interests of the state budget and are factored into the targets for the current year.