Lukashenko Under Fire
- 10.08.2026, 21:41
The banking crisis unfolding in Russia due to the war will hit Belarus hard.
In Russia, the banking crisis is gaining momentum against the backdrop of a war of attrition. However, it is not only Russia that will suffer, but also its closest ally—Belarus. And its losses may be even more severe, reported the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Ukraine.
According to the agency, Russia currently controls about a quarter of Belarus’s banking sector. Russian penetration into the economy of the allied country is massive.
“The real sector of the economy will bear the brunt of the impact. Russian subsidiary banks primarily provide loans to large enterprises operating in the Russian market. If the financial crisis in Russia escalates into an economic downturn, demand for Belarusian goods will plummet. This will affect companies’ revenues, worsen the quality of banks’ loan portfolios, and simultaneously limit businesses’ access to new financing. The situation will be further complicated by a reduction in lending from Russian banks. For a country that exports nearly two-thirds of its goods to Russia, this will be a serious blow,” the SVR stated.
Belarus’s public finances will also suffer. Financial support for the Lukashenko regime from Moscow will rapidly dry up. Minsk will likely have to dip into its reserves in the near future to pay off its debts.
Against the backdrop of these events, pressure on the Belarusian ruble will intensify.
“The devaluation of the Russian currency will inevitably spill over into the Belarusian ruble,” intelligence sources assured.
A significant outflow of funds from Belarusian banks is also expected—citizens will begin actively withdrawing cash.
“A banking crisis in Belarus is unlikely to begin at the same time as the one in Russia. But due to the country’s dependence on the Russian economy, its consequences could prove to be significantly more severe and long-lasting. This was already the case after the 1998 default, when Belarus continued to pay the price for the crisis that Russia had endured for several more years. For Minsk, the main threat is not the bankruptcy of Russian banks, but the severing of economic ties with the country on which the current model of the Belarusian economy is entirely dependent,” the Foreign Intelligence Service stated.