NYT: Putin Is Preparing For A New War Over Donbas Starting In The Fall Of 2027
- 16.08.2026, 14:47
The Europeans have the cards to thwart his plans.
Western officials believe that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine this winter, which will involve attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions and civilian infrastructure and will make the war even more devastating.
According to The New York Times citing Western officials, some of them believe that in the fall, after the State Duma elections, Putin will announce a new mobilization. Others also fear that the Russian president, having been backed into a corner, may resort to escalation with NATO and hybrid attacks in Europe to divide the alliance.
According to assessments by Western officials, Putin may be prepared to continue the war in Donbas until the fall of 2027. At that point, a new window for negotiations may open. Such talks will become more likely if the Kremlin’s goal of gaining full control over the Donetsk region remains unfulfilled, sources told the NYT.
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are trying to secure Europe’s participation in these future negotiations on Ukraine, three officials said. Representatives from these countries believe that resolving the war and future relations with Russia are too important for the region to rely solely on the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which appears increasingly unpredictable.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany hope to become the main European negotiators. These countries form the core of the “coalition of the willing” supporting Kyiv and are developing options for security guarantees for Ukraine following a potential resolution.
According to officials, it is also necessary to consult with Poland, Italy, and the Nordic countries, and the European Union must be kept informed and, later on, directly involved in the process. However, Europe’s potential participation in negotiations on Ukraine is complicated by disagreements within the EU itself. This is because some countries, especially those bordering Russia and Ukraine—such as Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Hungary—do not fully trust Germany and France to represent their interests.
According to Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the German Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, given Putin’s lack of interest in negotiations, Europeans are currently mistaking wishful thinking for reality. “At some point, Europe must step up because its security is under threat and is no longer viewed by Washington as a vital interest. But for now, Putin sees an advantage in trying to divide the West and engage with Europe through the U.S.,” Rettgen noted.
“Europeans have cards in their hands, but we need to play them wisely,” said former German diplomat Hans-Dieter Lukas. He also emphasized the need for close coordination with the U.S., since otherwise Russia will “drive a wedge” between Western allies.