Dmitry Bondarenko: Let's Believe Alla Pugacheva
- 17.08.2026, 8:26
How will Belarus change by 2027?
When will there be real opportunities for change in Belarus? How does the situation with the Yabloko party affect the situation in our country? Who will join the government of national salvation of the Republic of Belarus? The website Charter97.org discussed these issues with the coordinator of the “European Belarus” civic campaign Dmitry Bondarenko
— Recently, one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, former political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich, turned 70. Together, you’ve organized numerous protests and political campaigns in Belarus. What can you say about him?
— I’m very happy about the milestone birthday of my friend, colleague, and comrade-in-arms, Nikolai Statkevich. I’m glad he’s alive and recovering his health. Indeed, almost no significant event in Belarus has taken place without him. And, of course, it’s impossible to imagine the 2020 protests without him. He is a man who is a true leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, whose political and public career began long ago. Many Belarusian servicemen who served in the Soviet Army recall the “Statkevich Oath” in 1992, because it was he who inspired thousands of officers and warrant officers to serve in the Belarusian army and take an oath of allegiance to the Belarusian people.
— A week ago, a conference organized by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s office was held in Warsaw. It was timed to coincide with the sixth anniversary of the 2020 elections and protests in Belarus. How do you assess how it was conducted?
— It was a conference of a fairly narrow group of people who, in my opinion, undermined the protests and caused the 2020 revolution to fail. Many leaders who either played a significant role in the events that took place in Belarus earlier or were the driving forces behind the 2020 revolution did not participate. Look, Sergei Tikhanovsky wasn’t there, nor were the representatives of the “women’s trio”—Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova. Valery Tsepkalo, who brought significant momentum to the 2020 presidential campaign, was not there. Zenon Poznyak was not there, of course. Yevgeny Afnagel, who did so much as the leader of “European Belarus” within the country to organize protests, was not there, nor was Andrei Sannikov. Natalia Radina, who inspired Belarusians to participate in the Belarusian Revolution of Dignity, was not there. Gennady Fedynich and other labor union leaders were not there.
A key figure was missing; he was not present in any capacity. I am talking about the true leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Nikolai Statkevich. It was about him that Sergei Tikhanovsky said that without him, “neither I nor my wife would be in politics.”
What took place in Warsaw was an internal get-together among a select group of people, some of whom were able to personally capitalize on the 2020 revolution and then did everything in their power to prevent positive developments in the country.
— Viktor Babariko turned out to be the only “opposition figure” at the conference. You’ve probably heard his remarks that no one in Belarus would vote for the people gathered there today—which, naturally, provoked a strong reaction from Latushko?
— Babariko said that what was happening at the conference wasn’t important to his acquaintances in Belarus. And in fact, most Belarusians aren’t very interested in events within the émigré community. I know that Viktor Dmitrievich used to meet with representatives of Tikhanovskaya and with Latushko, but, according to him, he never received any concrete proposals for cooperation. He simply felt rejected by these people.
Which of them took an active part in the events of 2020? Perhaps Kuchinsky? Perhaps Vecherko, who left even earlier? Perhaps Tikhanovskaya, who behaved in an utterly cowardly manner both before the election and on August 9, yet by the 11th had already arrived in Vilnius, where she recorded two video messages to Belarusians, in which, with tears in her eyes, she urged them not to participate in the protests. Perhaps she was simply working off the 15,000 euros she took from a general in the Belarusian special services.
We are witnessing a distortion of reality, in which, unfortunately, the subservient media are also complicit. They understand that Western aid, among other things, now depends on the people in Tikhanovskaya’s office. These pseudo-independent journalists have been accustomed for many years to talking about a strong Lukashenko and a wise Makei, about some kind of social contract between society and the government—even though, according to secret opinion polls conducted by the Academy of Sciences, Lukashenko has not won a single election since 2001.
This parallel reality was created by specific journalists and specific media outlets. They used to promote Lukashenko; today they’re promoting Tikhanovskaya—for them, it’s a matter of survival, and that matters more to them than the fate of the country.
That is precisely why people in Belarus are indifferent to all the empty rhetoric that came out of the conference.
Let me remind you that in the so-called “elections to the Coordination Council”—following the scandals surrounding the escape of Anzhelika Melnikova—just over two thousand people participated, while the country has seven million voters. What else is there to say? Belarusians have made their stance on all this clear. People used to say “Sasha 3%,” but this entire group, together with Tikhanovskaya, has 0.03 percent.
— Have any new social movements or leaders emerged among Belarusians over the past six years?
— New leaders have emerged. In 2020, Belarusians contributed to the global treasure trove of nonviolent resistance. I’m talking about the protest courtyards. Since there were thousands of them—and they weren’t just in Minsk—and they were very effective, that means there were leaders there as well. After all, even after the centralized protests ended, they continued in the courtyards for over a year. So there are leaders in Belarus, and there are many of them.
— It’s become fashionable these days to talk about a “window of opportunity” for Belarusians. What do you mean by that?
— Everything can change very quickly, because a lot depends on the situation in Russia and the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
We see that certain processes are already taking place in Russia. The latest news is the ban on Yabloko participating in the “elections” to the Russian Duma. As soon as Yabloko’s participation in these “elections” was announced, its approval rating rose to 12 percent. Tens of thousands of Russians began actively promoting “Yabloko” online, creating videos, sharing its platform and symbols, and calling for an end to the war in Ukraine. This was very similar to the 2020 “election campaign” in Belarus. It became clear to the Kremlin that if Yabloko continued its campaigning and made it to the voting stage, a real revolution could break out in Russia. That is precisely why they had to urgently remove Yabloko members from the “elections.” But everyone in Russia and abroad saw that Putin is actually weak and, despite the billions spent on propaganda, even Russians want fundamental changes in their lives.
Real opportunities for Belarus will open up when Russia has other priorities and part of Lukashenko’s inner circle turns against their patron. It is then that all political prisoners will be released, and people who are currently in exile will have the opportunity to return to the country.
A government of national salvation will be formed—a true transitional government—comprising representatives of various political forces. It may even include people who are currently in power—provided that, at a certain point, they switch sides and join the people. For them, this is the only chance to go down in history and play some role in the reform processes that will take place in the country. That is what officials and security forces in communist Poland did in their time. They seized the opportunity and sat down at the roundtable with the opposition, which was very broad.
And then, I believe, we will have free elections—in accordance with the 1994 Constitution—to the Supreme Soviet, which will become a parliament enacting laws with direct effect. And only after that, if the office of president is retained, will there be elections for president, city mayors—a position that has never existed in Belarus—and a new parliament—possibly already under the new legislation.
Elections are not an end in themselves; the goal is to create a new Belarusian state that will join the European Union and NATO and carry out reforms in accordance with EU standards and with the EU’s assistance. The goal is to achieve a standard of living for Belarusians comparable to that in the European Union, because our people have suffered enough and deserve the right to a dignified life.
— When will this happen?
— Let’s put our faith in Alla Pugacheva, who said that radical changes in Russia will begin in 2027.
In 2020, Belarusians showed that they want to live in a normal, European Belarus. I am confident that, just like the Soviet Union, the regimes of Putin and Lukashenko could collapse in literally three days.