Scenario For Mass Riots In Russia Revealed

• 17.08.2026, 10:11

There is a risk of a snowball effect and a social construction effect.

Russian political scientist and expert on Central and Eastern Europe Ivan Preobrazhensky commented "Glavred" on the likelihood of mass protests in the aggressor state, the Russian Federation, against the regime of dictator Vladimir Putin.

“The most active segment of Russian adult society is either behind bars, has left Russia, or is so cowed that it is afraid to speak out publicly. But at the same time, there is yet another ‘unbroken’ generation of Russians who grew up under Putin, have never seen any alternative, and now feel that their lives and futures have been stolen from them,” he emphasized in an interview.

According to the expert, the most important thing in modern Russia is that the overwhelming majority of the population understands that the cost of protesting is too high for them.

“They have a realistic view of their lives and aren’t willing to spend 5–10 years in prison simply for their words, for social media posts, let alone for taking to the streets,” he explained.

The interviewee believes that in Russia there is a risk of a snowball effect and a social boiling-point effect, where a single event could suddenly cause society to wake up, forcing the Russian authorities to take repressive measures.

“I think a new wave is about to begin. But they’ll obviously wait—most likely until their electoral “special operation” is over, until September 21—and then they’ll start cracking down and arresting everyone they’ve identified during these so-called elections and the so-called registration of Yabloko. Whether this will work remains to be seen,” Preobrazhensky added.