Should We Expect The Belarusian Ruble To Collapse, As It Did In 2011?
- 18.08.2026, 10:16
The dollar is rising again.
On Monday, the dollar exchange rate for the first time in five months broke through the psychological barrier of three rubles. This time, unlike the spike in March, it has every chance of consolidating this level. What will happen to the Belarusian ruble, and should we expect a collapse similar to the one in 2011? The website “Belarusians and the Market” reports on this.
Why the Dollar Is Gaining Value
During Monday’s trading, the ruble immediately lost more than two kopecks in value. This came as no surprise. The Belarusian ruble has been weakening since the end of the week, and breaking the three-ruble-per-dollar threshold was only a matter of time—and a very short time at that—after the Russian Central Bank set the exchange rate above 85 rubles per dollar.
Because, in reality, the Belarusian ruble has nowhere to go. Two-thirds of Belarusian exports go to Russia. Accordingly, the Russian ruble accounts for 60 percent of the Belarusian National Bank’s currency basket. Therefore, the Belarusian ruble is bound to follow the trajectory of the Russian ruble.
And the Russian ruble has been depreciating for three weeks now. This is because exporters’ revenues are falling, the Central Bank is selling less foreign currency, and the Russian Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, is buying more of it. As a result, demand for foreign currency is rising, the dollar is appreciating, and the rubles—first the Russian ruble, then the Belarusian ruble—are depreciating accordingly.
And what about the Belarusian ruble
However, despite the high level of interdependence, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble does not exactly mirror that of the Russian ruble. Or rather, it does follow it, but with a slight delay and certain national characteristics.
Since the beginning of summer, the Russian ruble has weakened by nearly 20 percent. Meanwhile, the Belarusian ruble has depreciated against the dollar by only 8.5 percent. However, the Belarusian currency has strengthened against the Russian ruble by nearly eight percent.
Since 2015, exchange rates in Belarus have been determined by the market. In other words, the exchange rate depends on supply and demand. And the balance on the Belarusian foreign exchange market remains positive. Since the beginning of the year, currency sales have exceeded demand by $1.8 billion.
Will the ruble collapse?
Partly thanks to the positive balance on the foreign exchange market, the National Bank has managed to accumulate substantial reserves. As of August 1, they amounted to $14.2 billion. And this means that a sharp collapse of the exchange rate, similar to what happened in 2011, is highly unlikely this time around. (Unless, of course, something really bad happens).
However, the National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves actually amount to less than $6 billion. The rest consists of gold and IMF Special Drawing Rights. The former still needs to be sold, while the latter—given Belarus’s sanctioned status—is nearly impossible to sell.
However, even $6 billion is enough to support the Belarusian ruble’s exchange rate for some time. Or at least to prevent its sudden collapse if the Russian ruble’s exchange rate plummets.
What will the exchange rate be?
However, the Belarusian economy cannot afford to maintain a strong ruble for long. A Belarusian ruble that is too strong relative to the Russian ruble undermines the economy’s competitiveness in the Russian market.
Therefore, when the Russian ruble falls, the Belarusian ruble must also be allowed to depreciate gradually, avoiding sharp movements whenever possible. And as Russian experts believe, the Russian ruble still has a long way to go.
“The Ministry of Finance is tackling the budget deficit. It has already reached some outrageous levels, and it needs to be covered somehow. It’s hard for them to resist the temptation to raise the dollar exchange rate,” says Alexei Mamontov, president of the Moscow Currency Association .
The Russian budget deficit is already higher than last year’s and stands at 6.5 trillion rubles. At the same time, Russian banks are refusing to finance it. Weakening the ruble is the easiest way to at least alleviate the budget problems.
Experts in Russia cite an exchange rate of 95 or even 100 rubles per dollar as a benchmark. Given the Russian ruble’s share in the Belarusian currency basket, this means that the price of the dollar in Belarus could rise to as high as 3.5 rubles. The Belarusian authorities, of course, may try to prevent this from happening. But if they do, Belarusian goods will face major problems in the Russian market.