Russian Oil Exports Have Experienced Their Sharpest Decline Since The Start Of The War
- 18.08.2026, 18:57
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on the port of Novorossiysk "helped."
The period during which Russia increased its crude oil exports—since it was unable to process the full volume at its own refineries due to Ukrainian attacks—has come to an end. Crude oil exports have been falling for five consecutive weeks, and a new wave of attacks on refineries has not had the same effect as before: the freed-up oil could not be shipped abroad because the port in Novorossiysk was forced to halt shipments.
As a result, the decline in exports over these five weeks was the most significant for any comparable period since the start of the war against Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. To smooth out short-term fluctuations, the agency uses a four-week moving average: as of August 16, it had fallen to 3.58 barrels per day. That is 0.73 million barrels less than five weeks ago.
Although export volumes from Baltic ports have returned to normal levels following the Ukrainian attacks, not a single tanker has left Novorossiysk in the past week, according to vessel traffic data analyzed by Bloomberg. As seen in satellite images, one tanker that was attacked on Wednesday near the “Sesharis” oil terminal was still near it on Monday.
Early Friday morning, a tanker that had planned to dock at “Sheshkharis” for loading turned around and headed out to the open sea due to the threat of drone attacks, Reuters reported. Typically, about 700,000 barrels pass through the terminal per day.
More volatile Monday data from Bloomberg shows an even more significant drop in total exports: last week, they totaled 3.21 million barrels per day, whereas for the week ending June 28, they reached a historic high of 4.72 million.
Despite this decline, the average annual figure for maritime exports this year remains the highest since 2022—3.63 million barrels per day.
Problems with oil exports, transportation, storage, and refining, combined with a lack of investment in the exploration and development of new reserves, are causing production in Russia to fall—for the eighth consecutive month. According to OPEC data, production in July stood at 8.89 million barrels per day. This is the lowest level in the past six years and nearly 1 million barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota.