The "Afghan" Trap For Putin
- 26.08.2026, 8:23
The same scenario could play out again, just as it did during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
A large-scale mobilization of about 300,000 people, planned for the period following the fall elections in Russia, could bring an end to the war in Ukraine. However, events may unfold in a way that is entirely different from the scenario Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is counting on.
Another mass draft in Russia could repeat the scenario of the war in Afghanistan, when thousands of bodies of fallen conscripts were thousands of bodies of mobilized citizens were returned. This opinion was expressed in a column in The Telegraph by British Army Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
The British officer recalled how the mothers of Soviet soldiers marched on the Kremlin demanding that their sons be brought home. Eventually, the political pressure became so intense that it could not be ignored, and in February 1989, Soviet troops were completely withdrawn from Afghanistan.
“The zinc coffins returning from Afghanistan, as well as the grief and anger they provoked, were a significant factor not only in ending the war but also in the collapse of the Soviet Union,” the author noted.
Why haven’t there been large-scale protests in Russia yet?
To date, despite the Russian army’s enormous losses in the war against Ukraine, there have been no mass public protests in Russia. Hemish de Bretton-Gordon believes that the answer to this question lies in who exactly is dying on the front lines.
“For most of this war, Putin has managed to avoid sending ethnic Russian conscripts into battle against their will. The Russian army has been replenished with prisoners, mercenaries, members of ethnic minorities, and residents of poorer regions, who were lured by salaries that are high by Russian standards or promises of release from prison,” the author notes.
Meanwhile, members of the “elite” in Moscow and St. Petersburg view these conscripts as “expendable” and do not send their own sons to war. If members of the “elite” do go to fight in Ukraine, they do so of their own volition, and in such cases, they are assigned to safe posts for their service.
The propaganda machine in the Russian Federation continues to operate actively. Russians are shown images of their military personnel as “heroic liberators” who are supposedly “liberating” Ukraine, although in reality there is nothing heroic about their actions. Moreover, Russian soldiers are often poorly equipped.
“This is not an army marching confidently toward victory. It is a meat grinder destroying young men on an industrial scale,” emphasized Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
The mobilization of 300,000 people could radically change the situation
The author notes that this new large-scale mobilization “could affect the comfortable homes of the middle class” in western Russia for the first time. Putin will try to protect the oligarchs and his inner circle, but urban middle-class men, who understand the gravity of the situation in the Russian economy, will likely feel the brunt of it.
“This is precisely where the real danger for Putin lies. And even if he manages to draft another 300,000 people, numbers alone won’t help him win this war,” — emphasized the British officer, noting the need for well-trained soldiers and competent officers in the army.
The author of the article notes that the Russian dictator now faces a difficult choice: either “continue feeding meat into the meat grinder” or end the war by admitting that his “special military operation” has failed. At the same time, the Kremlin’s increasingly “hysterical” rhetoric directed at Ukraine’s allied countries indicates that the Russian leadership is disappointed with the situation on the battlefield and is attempting to drive a wedge between Western nations.